On My Radar - Be a Swim Coach
February 28, 2025
By Steve Blumenthal
"If you can't fly, then run. If you can't run, then walk. If you can't walk, then crawl. But whatever you do, you have to keep moving forward"
– Martin Luther King Jr.
Long ago, Mom bought me a book written by Grantland Rice. It was thick and full of sports stories. I kept it by my bed and would read and reread his stories.
Grantland Rice was a legendary sportswriter with a unique form of poetic style and storytelling. Born in 1880, Rice’s career spanned decades, and he became famous for capturing the drama and humanity behind sports games. His most iconic line, “For when the One Great Scorer comes to mark against your name, He writes—not that you won or lost—but how you played the Game,” reflects his belief that character mattered more than victory. Mom framed that quote for me and I still have it on my office shelf today.
Rice covered some of the most significant sports moments of the 20th century. His vivid prose brought athletes to life. His work set a standard for sports journalism, blending elegance with insight. His influence on the profession still resonates today.
Here are a few heartwarming leadership quotes highlighting the life lessons sports impart:
"It's hard to beat a person who never gives up." – Babe Ruth
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." – Wayne Gretzky
"Champions aren't made in the gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them—a desire, a dream, a vision." – Muhammad Ali
"The most important thing is to try and inspire people so that they can be great in whatever they want to do." – Kobe Bryant
"Run when you can, walk if you have to, crawl if you must; just never give up." – Dean Karnazes
Last night, Susan (my wife and favorite coach) read me a text she got from one of her players. There is a big tournament this weekend and this particular kid is one of the top players on the team. However, with twenty-three players, only eighteen dress per game. They all know there will be one or two times during the season they will not get in the game. No one wants to get the tap on the shoulder that they won’t be playing.
I couldn’t help but notice how articulate this high school senior was. She expressed her understanding for sitting out this game, was honest about her disappointment, and concluded with her appreciation for the team. She said she’d be cheering her teammates on from the bench.
I’ll be on a flight to Denver tomorrow, and the first thing I will do when I land is call Susan to see how the game went. It’s an important tournament — the winners advance to the regional tournament. You can understand how hard that tap on the shoulder was for the players involved. Hard things are good.
The quotes above underscore how sports teach resilience, courage, and the importance of seizing opportunities—qualities essential in leadership and life. Coaches/teachers are perhaps the most important among us.
It’s been a bumpy week for equities but no new news in the overvalued, over-concentrated state of the equities market.
Tariffs are back in focus. Asian equity markets took a hit, following Wall Street’s lead after Trump’s latest round of tariffs. China quickly responded with its threats.
The S&P 500 is slightly higher after the Fed’s favorite inflation measure came in at 2.60% this morning. The 10-year Treasury Yield continues to move lower, at 4.24% mid-day today.
We have an indicator we built in partnership with Ned Davis Research that looks at a combination of price trends across twenty-three industry sectors and the market breadth within each sector, which is then summarized collectively. The score ranges from 0-100 with 100 being most bullish. The reading has been mildly bullish for a long time, scoring in the 70-70 range. It sits this morning at 63.42. A drop below 60 puts us on alert. A drop below 50 is a bearish signal.
The idea here is that when the majority of stocks are weakening and fewer are holding up the price performance, weakening in the economy is not far behind. The high yield bond market is the early warning ‘canary in the coal mine,’ and tends to lead the equity markets, and the equity markets tend to lead the economy. Recessions are when the bad stuff tends to happen for risk assets.
Tariffs are inflationary. The economy is slowing. I remain in the stagflation (slow growth/higher for longer inflation) camp. Recession is on the horizon, but I’ve been saying that for a few years. Two trillion in excess government spending is where I believe I errored. That game is ending. Let’s stay on alert.
Quoting the great Forest Gump, “That’s all I’ve got to say about that.”
Grab your coffee and settle into your favorite chair. Let’s go in a lighter direction today. You’ll find a heart-warming story about the great NBA basketball player, Jerry West. Fun fact - The NBA logo is the silhouette of Jerry West. The story lifted my spirits, and I hope it also lifts yours. I conclude today with an excellent book recommendation—a good read for everyone in business or starting a new business.
Reheat that coffee and let’s inject some joy into the day…
On My Radar:
Personal Note: Be A Swim Coach
See Important Disclosures at the bottom of this page. Reminder: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. My views may change at any time. The information is for discussion purposes only.
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George Raveling and Jerry West
Source: The Daily Coach
“It was the late 1950s, and I was a senior at Villanova. We were headed to Morgantown to face off against West Virginia University and their hometown hero, Jerry West. Little did I know, this trip would become a defining moment in my life, a testament to the power of love in the face of hatred and fear.
As our train rolled into Morgantown, I couldn't shake the sense of unease that had been building in my gut. This was the South, after all, a place where the color of my skin made me a target, a threat, an outsider. But I tried to focus on the game ahead, on the opportunity to compete against one of the best players in the country.
I fouled out of the game, my dreams of a victory over West shattered. But as I made my way to the bench, something even more remarkable occurred. West chased me down, caught me by the arm, and shook my hand. "Good game," he said, looking me square in the eye. "It was a pleasure playing against you."
That moment marked the beginning of a friendship that would endure for over half a century. Jerry would go on to become an NBA legend, the silhouette behind the league's iconic logo. But to me, he was always the man who had the courage to reach out, to bridge the divide of race and prejudice with a simple act of decency.
Jerry passed away during the writing of this book. When I heard of his passing, it hit me like a ton of bricks. I couldn't control my emotions, couldn't stem the flood of memories and gratitude that poured out of me. I shut off my phone and retreated into myself, trying to make sense of what his loss meant to me, to the world. In the days that followed, as I reflected on Jerry's life and our friendship, I realized that he had taught me one of the most valuable lessons of my life: that love is the most powerful force we possess. That in the face of hatred, of ignorance, of fear, love is the only answer. It is the bridge that connects us, the light that guides us through the darkness.
Jerry West showed me the power of loving those who others deem unlovable. Of extending compassion and respect to those who have been denied it. Of using our privilege and platform to lift up the marginalized and oppressed.
In my own life, I've tried to carry that lesson with me, to be a dispenser of love in a world that so desperately needs it. I've tried to live my life in a way that honors Jerry's example. Because at the end of the day, that's what we're all called to do. To love one another, without reservation or hesitation. To see the humanity in every person we encounter, no matter how different they may seem. To use whatever power and influence we have to make this world a little bit brighter, a little bit more just, a little bit kinder.
That's the legacy that Jerry West left behind. Not just the championships and the accolades, but the way he treated people, the way he used his gifts to make the world a better place. And it's a legacy that we can all aspire to, no matter who we are or where we come from.”
Coach Raveling and The Daily Coach team have used “Notes” of An Elder to offer readers an exclusive inside look at the insights and stories from his highly anticipated book, What You're Made For—co-authored with his friend and modern philosopher Ryan Holiday.
The book officially releases next week on Tuesday, March 4.
As a special gift to The Daily Coach community, here’s a downloadable excerpt from What You’re Made For. Your support and readership over the years have made a lasting, positive impact on us. We’re grateful for you.
Trade Signals: Update – February 27, 2025
Markets tumbled again (Feb 27). The S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, while the Nasdaq fell 2.8%, as fresh tariff headlines rattled investors. President Trump announced today that 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will take effect on March 4th, along with an additional 10% tax on Chinese imports.
Adding to the pressure, Nvidia’s earnings disappointed, sending the stock down 7%.
On the economic front, Q4 GDP grew at an unrevised annual rate of 2.3%, while weekly jobless claims rose to 242k, the highest in two months and above the 225k expected.
Up next: Tomorrow brings PCE inflation, income and spending data, and Japanese industrial production.
The 10-year Treasury Yield is dropping. The Trade Signals bond indicators are bullish (signaling lower yields). Our Zweig Bond Model hit a rare +5 bullish score. Source: CMG Investment Research, CNBC, Bloomberg.
Trade Signals is designed for traders and investors seeking a better understanding of technical trends in various markets. Click on the link below to subscribe or login. The letter is free for CMG clients; reply to this email or contact your CMG rep.
TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only.
Personal Note: Be a Swim Coach
It'll be sixty degrees and sunny in Denver tomorrow, my son Matthew is taking me golfing with two of his friends. Utah follows on Sunday. I land early and will give my good friend Andy McOrmond a call to find out where to point my Uber. I just pulled up my Snowbird app—light snow is expected on Sunday, with heavy snowfall on Monday and Tuesday. Yahooo!
The WallachBeth Winter Symposium in Park City kicks off Tuesday afternoon. It’s a gathering of over 150+ attendees, including the major stock exchanges, investment banks, investment managers, wealth advisors, and just about everyone in the ETF ecosystem. You’ll recognize many of them: NASDAQ, NYSE, State Street, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Invesco, BNY Mellon, FirstTrust, and some great niche firms like Krane, Pacer, and VanEck.
I’ve been attending for nearly fifteen years, and over time, business relationships have turned into lasting friendships. This conference is different. Andy and his team bring together people who genuinely want to share ideas and help each other grow. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve picked up the phone and called a WallachBeth Symposium friend for advice, a connection, or a fresh perspective.
Years ago, I read a book called Hyper Sales Growth by Jack Daly. It perfectly captures the spirit of what Andy and his team have built. I can’t recommend it enough.
In the book, Jack tells a story that stuck with me. At 58, he set a goal to compete in triathlons but couldn’t swim. So, he hired a swim coach. Recognizing Jack needed more than just swim lessons, the coach introduced him to a reputable bike shop and a cycling coach, then sent him to a running store for the right shoes. These referrals weren’t made for any personal gain—they were made because the coach genuinely wanted to help Jack succeed.
The lesson? If you want to be successful in any business, be a swim coach. Put others first, make connections, and offer help without expecting anything in return. Trust is the foundation of lasting success.
Andy is that swim coach.
The ETF industry has experienced remarkable growth over the last fifteen years, offering investors an ever-expanding menu of options. There's an ETF for almost every strategy, from broad market trackers to niche themes like AI, clean energy, bitcoin, and even obscure commodities. This diversity allows investors to play both sides of the market—through traditional long positions, inverse ETFs that profit from declines, or covered-call strategies that generate income. As fund issuers innovate, the ETF space is a go-to tool for passive and active approaches to making money in the markets.
I'm looking forward to spending time with old friends, meeting new ones, and learning. I’ll share the best insights learned at the conference with you next week!
When you find a free moment, call your favorite coach or teacher and send them some love.
With kind regards,
Steve
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Stephen B. Blumenthal
Executive Chairman & CIO
CMG Capital Management Group, Inc.
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Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management. Author of Forbes Book: On My Radar, Navigating Stock Market Cycles.
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