On My Radar: Margin Debt In A Late Cycle Bull Market
Margin debt hit a record $1.5 trillion in June and now sits near 4.6% of GDP, the most leverage relative to the economy on record. Plus Ned Davis Research's late-cycle charts: one of the longest bull markets in history, a SpaceX-led IPO surge, record stock ownership, record tech concentration, and what the Fed, the midterms and seasonals mean into year-end.
On My Radar: The Canary in the Data Center
Two canaries stopped singing this week: producer prices jumped 1.3% in September and CoreWeave's bonds slid into distressed territory. Plus Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones on the AI bubble, updated valuation charts and the yen carry trade.
On My Radar: A Game of Reward vs. Risk
Howard Marks's fishbowl, Peter Bernstein on survival, and how we score reward vs. risk, from option collars to direct lending. Plus Peter Boockvar on CNBC and the yen carry trade.
On My Radar: No Clear Off-Ramp
"Things have not materially changed… The exception is the Houthis." A former oil CEO's latest read on Iran, plus jobs, rates and the yen carry trade.