On My Radar: A Tactical Timeout - Two Empires at Critical Inflection Points
October 31, 2025
By Steve Blumenthal
“A truce, not a breakthrough.”
– Ian Bremmer
Geopolitical strategist Ian Bremmer characterized the meeting between Trump and Xi as a stabilizing force between the two countries, bringing them closer to their pre-escalation status, but emphasized that there is still a longer-term movement towards decoupling, especially in the tech sector.
Bremmer concluded, “a truce, not a breakthrough." Source: GZERO Media
Key Outcomes From Trump - Xi Meeting
The meeting produced several concrete agreements:
The U.S. will ease tariffs on Chinese goods. China will restart imports of U.S. soybeans, delay export restrictions on some rare earth metals for one year, and intensify efforts to curb illegal fentanyl trafficking.
The short duration of the talks, about one hour and 40 minutes, took some by surprise, with analysts suggesting both sides limited discussions to topics that had already been settled in advance.
Trump described the meeting as "amazing.” Xi’s body language was less than amazing. A stone-cold poker face may better describe his demeanor.
For the U.S., China's agreement to delay export restrictions on rare earth metals for one year represents a key area of strategic importance, as China produces more than 70 percent of the world's processed rare earth metals.
Rare earth metals - the most significant dynamic:
China gave some ground, but it is clear that the Chinese threats got the U.S. to back off a series of proposed restrictions, creating some safe space for China's economic system.
The hard truth: both countries are decoupling from each other. The objective for both was to buy some time.
Grab that coffee and find your favorite chair. We are going to dive deeper into this within the framework of Neil Howe’s The Fourth Turning and Ray Dalio’s Long-term Debt Cycle work, with a little Game of Thrones theme woven in.
On My Radar:
A Tactical Timeout: Two Empires at Critical Inflection Points
Inflation - What the CEO’s are Saying
Trade Signals: Investor Sentiment (Low) and Market Price (Stretched)
Personal Note: Our Coach on Adversity!
OMR is for informational and educational purposes only. No consideration is given to your specific investment needs, objectives, or tolerances.
Please see the Important Disclosures at the bottom of this page. Reminder: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. My views may change at any time. The information is for discussion and educational purposes only.
If you like what you are reading, you can subscribe for free.
A Tactical Timeout: Two Empires at Critical Inflection Points
The Thucydides Trap is when a rising power (challenger) grows strong enough to threaten the dominance of an established power (hegemon). The rising power becomes frustrated with the existing order and seeks to reshape it to better serve its interests. The established power feels increasingly threatened and may act preemptively to maintain its position. Both sides typically face a security dilemma where defensive moves appear aggressive to the other.
Xi is presenting China as the champion of developing nations and systematically challenging American hegemony.
The Trump–Xi meeting this week wasn’t just another trade negotiation. It was a tactical timeout: a pause between two superpowers trying to buy time before the next phase of what history tells us is likely to unfold.
To understand the significance of this moment, let’s take a look through two lenses:
Ray Dalio’s long-term debt and power-cycle framework and
Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning.
Together, they paint a picture of two empires: one aging, one ascending, as they near the historical cycle’s most challenging stretch.
The Dalio Lens: Three Major Forces Driving the Cycle
Dalio identifies three big forces that mark the rise and fall of empires:
The end of the long-term debt cycle - when debt becomes unmanageable, economies slow, and policy tools fail.
Internal conflict - when wealth and opportunity gaps become extreme, creating internal conflict.
External conflict - when a rising power challenges the existing power.
The late 1930s were the last time these forces converged.
We’ve looked at Ray’s work many times before. He developed an enormous database of information on the rise and fall of empires that dominated world power and wealth, and he mapped out the "big cycles" by which four countries have dominated the world over the last 500 years.
Dalio’s research shows the U.S. still leads globally, but by a narrowing margin.
The Debt-Cycle Context
For the U.S., $38 trillion of government debt (approximately 120% of GDP) has created a dangerous feedback loop: higher rates drive up interest costs, leading to increased borrowing, eroding confidence in Treasuries, and stoking inflation. Additionally, the government has run an approximate $2 trillion annual deficit. The U.S. national debt increased from $37 trillion in August 2025 to $38 trillion by October 23, 2025. $1 trillion in two months!
History shows us that when countries run out of money and still need to maintain buying power, they monetize their debt; essentially, by creating (printing) new money. It works, until it doesn’t. And this is where the U.S. finds itself today. The U.S. can’t afford an all-out tariff war while juggling its debt load. The government is walking on thin ice.
For China, the debt picture is different, but it presents its own challenges. After 2008, Beijing flooded its system with credit to sustain growth. Under Xi, financial controls have tightened, innovation has accelerated, and global ambitions have expanded.
China is earlier in its debt cycle but not immune to it. The U.S. consumer has been an excellent source of growth for the country, and Xi needs steady trade to fund China’s technological leap. A full decoupling now would come too soon.
Both sides have reasons to pause before the next escalation.
The Fourth Turning Lens
The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy by William Strauss and Neil Howe presents a theory that Anglo-American history follows a recurring, approximately 80- to 100-year cycle, known as a saeculum, divided into four distinct eras or "turnings." Each turning lasts about 20-25 years and is characterized by a unique social mood and corresponding generational behaviors.
When the book was published in 1997, Strauss and Neil forecasted that a catalyst would emerge around 2005, triggering a crisis era, a Fourth Turning, that would climax in the 2020s.
That catalyst came in 2008 - the global financial crisis.
In his 2023 book The Fourth Turning Is Here, Howe argues that the United States is in a "Fourth Turning," a cyclical period of civic upheaval that will likely climax by the early 2030s.
Twenty to twenty-five years from 2008 marks the period between 2028 and 2033. This is likely the most challenging period. It’s hard to dismiss the evidence.
Once we get through this and reset the system, a post-crisis “First Turning” rebirth will follow. First Turning’s are awesome.
If the history of human behavior and its cyclical nature has merit, what this means is that we’re not at the start of the crisis; we’re well into it. We’re in the depths of winter, approaching the solstice - nearing the most challenging point.
Dalio’s Long-Term Debt Accumulation Cycle
Dalio draws a parallel to the 1937–38 period, when global debt, inequality, and polarization contributed to the outbreak of global conflict. Then, too, world leaders staged “tactical timeouts” - temporary truces before the real storm. We sit 87 years from 1938. This cycle, too, is aged.
Why It Matters and Why It Doesn’t
Both Trump and Xi are buying time before the storm reaches its peak. Neither can afford an external war when their internal orders are strained. Buying more decoupling time is about managing the descent, not reversing it.
For the U.S., the one-year suspension of China’s rare-earth restrictions provides the U.S. with breathing room to diversify its supply chains. For China, tariff relief is necessary to maintain its connection to the U.S. consumer. Soybean purchases help both countries.
What hasn’t changed is the underlying power struggle between the two superpowers. The U.S. and China are already engaged in four of Dalio’s five types of war: economic, technological, geopolitical, and capital.
When a dominant power faces internal fractures while a rising rival presses forward, history tends to rhyme in unsettling ways. The bottom line: The truce doesn’t end the conflict; it merely buys some time for each to diversify away from the other.
Game of Thrones – The Alliance Before the Meeting with the Dragon
I’ve enjoyed revisiting a framework that connects the geopolitical chessboard of our world to Game of Thrones. Based on email feedback, if you watched Game of Thrones, I think you enjoyed the storyline. If you didn’t, I think I left you confused, for which I’m sorry.
Bear with me one last time. I’m going to give the OMR Game of Thrones series one more go.
For those unfamiliar: in George R.R. Martin’s world, great houses battle for the Iron Throne while debt, dysfunction, and winter gather in the background. The true threat comes not from rivals across the sea, but from a cold, slow approaching force few wish to acknowledge.
In our modern-day world, the United States sits upon the Iron Throne (global economic hegemony). The throne has grown heavy with debt, is fractured by internal division, and is challenged by rising external and internal powers. Winter, in the form of economic and geopolitical stress, draws near.
While still powerful, it’s strained, with new challengers gathering strength across the sea. Which brings us to the past week: King Donald (leader of the Seven Kingdoms) and Emperor Xi (Daenerys - Mother of Dragons).
Before meeting Xi in Busan, Trump stopped in Tokyo. That visit was no ceremonial courtesy. It was alliance-building before entering the dragon’s den.
Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, pledged deeper cooperation on defense, trade, and critical minerals. Symbolism mattered: she gifted Trump a putter once owned by former Prime Minister Abe and a signed golf bag from Hideki Matsuyama—a subtle signal of continuity, commitment, and shared strategic purpose.
Behind the pageantry came substance: the U.S. and Japan signed a rare-earth and critical-minerals framework to streamline permitting, co-invest in supply chains, and coordinate with “like-minded partners.” Australia, Pakistan, and others have made similar moves with Washington.
The King in the West secured his Northern House before speaking with the Xi, the dragon.
China’s Dragon… and Its Limits
China mines approximately 70% and processes over 90% of rare earths. That monopoly has been Beijing’s dragon, its decisive leverage. Yet monopolies create incentives. Overuse of power forces others to unite. That is happening now. Trump’s move in Japan served notice: the U.S. has alternatives, and those alternatives are mobilizing. It is coalition construction.
The one-year suspension on China’s rare-earth controls now looks less like diplomatic goodwill and more like recognition that leverage was eroding. Both leaders earned what they needed: time. Trump aims to diversify supply chains, while Xi seeks to stabilize a fragile economy and manage internal pressures.
Fourth Turning Context
I want to focus on the Fourth Turning and highlight the fact that the challenges we are seeing are evidence of the timing. In every Fourth Turning, alliances harden and positions lock. Power shifts occur not gradually, but in bursts - sudden, decisive, often surprising. The U.S.–Japan alignment fits that pattern. The architecture of the next global order is being assembled in real time, deal by deal.
On one side: China–Russia–Iran–North Korea. Let’s not forget, in early September, China hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin. It was followed by a massive military parade in Beijing on September 3rd, marking the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan. I referenced in the On My Radar: Game of Thrones III.
On the other: U.S.–Japan–Australia, with India and Europe in varying degrees of orbit.
Several Investment Implications (Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security)
Supply-chain relocation is structural.
Companies tied to diversified strategic minerals gain an advantage.Follow the Japanese capital.
$400 billion committed to U.S. energy, AI, and critical minerals. Watch where it goes.Alliance premium.
In periods of stress, capital tends to gravitate toward stable alliances.China timeline compressing.
Rare-earth monopoly erosion could accelerate change in defense, energy, and tech.
The Bottom Line
Trump did not leave Busan with a concession. He left with the time and cover. Time to build alliances and harden positions. Xi secured time as well. Winter approaches - both are preparing.
This isn’t a truce between partners; it is a negotiated pause between two debt-strained empires, each confronting internal pressure and external rivalry.
In our modern-day Game of Thrones, winter is not merely a metaphor. It is the convergence of debt, demographic strain, supply-chain fracture, and grand geopolitical reordering. Let’s pray there are no White Walkers to complicate our future. They still scare me.
CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO ON MY RADAR - IT’S FREE
The opinions are mine. Please know that there are no guarantees the above will prove correct, and that views are subject to change. See essential disclosures further below.
Inflation - What the CEO’s are Saying
With the end of the debt cycle challenges we are facing, it’s important to understand that inflation is the kryptonite.
I sent a note to my good friend Peter Boockvar this week in response to one of his posts. My message, “excellent piece!” His response was, “reality check.”
I know of no other human being who reads more earnings transcripts than Peter. The following provides a good sense of what is happening. It’s long, but will give you an on-the-ground feel for what's happening across various businesses in terms of growth, tariff impact, and inflation.
From Peter, “It’s not just publicly traded companies that I try to glean macro messages from, along with their individual fundamentals, I’m always reading to get info on private companies too. In yesterday’s NY Times business section in an article talking about how companies are dealing with tariffs they interviewed Richard Rosenfeld, the owner of Two Leaves and a Bud, a Colorado based tea company. As tariffs are hitting him with the import of product, what comes next? “There’s a lot of elasticity in the system” he said and then the article mentioned “But the rubber band has stretched as far as it can go, and he recently imposed the largest price increase in his company’s history.” He then was quoted again, “We’ll have another price increase absolutely coming soon. And I can’t imagine that we won’t have multiple rounds of price increases next year as all these tariffs affect not only us but all the suppliers who supply us and supply our suppliers.”
On the public side, we’ve heard plenty of large companies that are able to mitigate the impact of tariffs to some extent (with the consumer also being a part of that mitigation via higher prices) but smaller businesses don’t have as much flexibility.
From Carter’s, the children’s clothing maker:
“The gross impact of tariffs on gross margin was $20 million in the third quarter. On a consolidated basis, we made good progress in raising prices, which were up in the low single digits, but this higher pricing did not fully offset the higher product costs in the quarter. Our US Retail business made particular progress in raising prices. Third quarter AURs in US Retail increased in the mid single digit range over last year.” I bolded.
“As I noted earlier, consumers accepted higher prices in the quarter...From a product point of view, baby continues to be a key driver.”
As for guidance, “we have not reinstated sales and earnings guidance given the ongoing and significant uncertainty regarding tariffs. We’re still in the early days of gauging consumers’ response to higher prices and seeing how our peers and the competition will deal with the challenge of tariffs.”
Why again are we putting tariffs on imported clothing that we will never make here? National security?
From DR Horton who missed eps estimates:
“New home demand is still being impacted by ongoing affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment, and we expect our sales incentives to remain elevated in fiscal 2026, the extent to which will depend on market conditions throughout the year.”
From Royal Caribbean and whose stock is trading down pre market as guidance was light:
Business still seems good though, “We continue to see strong momentum across our business, powered by accelerated demand, growing loyalty, and guest satisfaction that is at all-time highs.”
“Looking ahead, while it’s still early in the planning process, our strong booked position gives us confidence for 2026 and beyond.”
“The company continues to be encouraged by the demand and pricing environment for its vacation experiences. Booked load factors remain within historical ranges at record rates for both 2025 and 2026...Bookings for 2026 have come in at rates that are well above the prior year, resulting in a y/o/y rate growth at the high end of historical ranges. Guest spending onboard and pre-cruise purchases continue to exceed prior years, driven by greater participation at higher prices.”
Yesterday the October Dallas manufacturing index remained in contraction at -5 vs -8.7 in September and the six month outlook fell to a 5 month low. Here were some respondent comments in a variety of industries and highlighting again how mixed and uneven the economy is, I’ll say again, with manufacturing in particular still in a recession:
Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing
Overall uncertainty about the strength of the economy is our largest concern. We believe the risk of a recession has increased, although it is hard to quantify. Lower economic opportunities, especially for younger people, is putting downward pressure on our future sales.
Computer and electronic product manufacturing
We are considering closing our company at the end of the year and filing for bankruptcy. We have had a huge drop in sales, and I think it’s due to the loss of government funding. I don’t think I can recover the company from it.
Fabricated metal product manufacturing
Our sales outlook is slightly down for 2026.
Customers are delaying projects to 2026, and requests for quotes have decreased.
Our customers want to buy, but they lack cash on hand. Multiple competitor closures are funneling demand, but our customers lack liquidity to fund required deposits and interim payments.
Furniture and related product manufacturing
There’s a slowdown of commercial construction bid requests.
Machinery manufacturing
Sales have been strong and steady over the past few months. We hope this trend continues.
The free market is prevailing despite the central planners’ well-intentioned but misguided tariff policies.
Up and down, back and forth. We are thankful for the work, but the waves continue.
We expect some gain as well as some loss going forward in 2026 and through the remainder of the current year. We do believe the good will outweigh the bad overall. The DFW area continues to thrive, Texas remains a good place to do business, and the U.S. remains favorable for business as opposed to many world markets. We’re thankful we are where we are geographically and economically.
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Tariffs. We manufacture in the U.S., but input materials come from China. We don’t have $600 million to get relief from tariffs like some companies do.
Paper manufacturing
Business is steady at very slow; no uptick in sight at this time.
Primary metal manufacturing
We suspect other countries, including Mexico, Vietnam and Cambodia are cheating and not paying full Section 232 tariffs on aluminum-extruded products coming into the U.S. This has been reported to the Commerce Department. They are producing two invoices, one for the raw aluminum and another for the other portions of their prices resulting in not paying the full Section 232. If this is allowed to continue our industry will lose jobs and shutter equipment. Most of the foreign countries are subsidizing exports to the U.S. to the detriment of our industry.
Printing and related support activities
We have gotten very slow and we worry about the general state of our industry. We have a few large jobs that are keeping people busy in the plant, but soon if things don’t change there will need to be some significant reduction in hours worked on the plant floor. There is just not much going on right now, and we believe it’s all tied to the chaos and uncertainty coming from Washington. We are hearing about significant price increases on materials coming soon due to the effect of tariffs.
Tariff costs (a tax) are having an impact of slowing down economic activity in all sectors. It’s all to do with economic uncertainty.
Textile product mills
We are very unsure of how the holiday season will play out. Input prices continue to increase as duties and tariffs take effect and remain in place. We are unsure of demand, and we will also need to increase our prices due to rising costs.
Transportation equipment manufacturing
The interest rate reduction is positive. There’s a need to improve the government shutdown and trade turmoil, and the outlook would be very promising.
Continued volatility with import tariffs and interest rates continue to stifle the trucking market. Trucking companies continue to struggle, and there is a regular cadence of bankruptcies being reported.
Business is up, yet we are also affected by the government shutdown in our ability to work with regulators to approve next steps.
Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of One Point BFG Wealth Partners a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and One Point BFG Wealth Partners are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by One Point BFG Wealth Partners or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.
If you like what you are reading, click on the following link. CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO ON MY RADAR - IT’S FREE
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only.
Trade Signals: Update - Investor Sentiment (Low) and Market Price (Stretched), October 30, 2025
Trade Signals is Organized in the Following Sections:
*Trade Signals basics: The Market Commentary section summarizes notable changes in the core key indicators: Investor sentiment, market breadth, stocks, treasury yields, the dollar, and gold. The Dashboard of Indicators provides a detailed view of all Trade Signals indicators.
Market Commentary:
The Fed
The Fed cut rates again by 25 bps, bringing the target range to 3.75–4.0%, right in line with expectations. Powell’s commentary on the economy and inflation was mostly unchanged from September. Also, he confirmed that quantitative tightening (QT) will officially end on December 1, leaving the balance sheet around $6.5 trillion (it peaked at $8.975 trillion in April 2022 but was $4.2 trillion in February 2020 when Covid shut down the economy).
Bottom line: no real surprises. Bond yields ticked up a few basis points across the curve after the announcement.
The NASDAQ 18% Above the 200-day MA
October 29, 2025, 18% above 200-day MA
December 2021, 14.5% above 200-day MA
March 2000, 55.5% above 200-day MA
Green circles in the chart show the three prior periods (highest readings), since 1996, in terms of percentage, the Nasdaq price closed above its 200-day MA. The point is, this is unusual price behavior. A “sell when everyone is buying moment?” You decide.
StockCharts.com, CMG notations
Notables This Week:
Investor sentiment
My friend Peter Boockvar noted this in his October 29, 2025, morning Boock Report, “The Investor Intelligence survey out today saw Bears down to just 13.5 vs 15.1 in the week before, and I can’t remember the last time it was this low. Bulls rose to 57.2 from 52.8 and thus puts the spread to 43.7 and above the 40 danger zone that we’ve seen in the past.” He sent a follow-up email saying, “(This is) the lowest since January 2018 when it touched 12.2.” We are at one of the widest spreads between bears and bulls. Buckle up!
Key Macro Indicators - Investor Sentiment, Market Breadth, The S&P 500 Index (Stocks), The 10-year Treasury Yield (Bonds), and the Dollar
About Trade Signals
Trade Signals is a paid subscription service that posts the daily, weekly, and monthly trends in the markets (and more). Free for CMG clients. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. For discussion purposes only.
“Extreme patience combined with extreme decisiveness. You may call that our investment process.
Yes, it’s that simple.”
– Charlie Munger
TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only.
Personal Note: Our Coach on Adversity
"I've observed that if individuals who prevail in a highly competitive environment have any one thing in common besides success, it is failure—and their ability to overcome it."
Bill Walsh, former San Francisco 49ers Coach
A few weeks ago, Malvern Prep held its first-ever coaches' roundtable. The presentation was for the parents of student athletes from the various sports, including football, lacrosse, soccer, basketball, baseball, track, squash, rowing, swimming, tennis, and water polo. The topic: Adversity
We are all crazy about our children, and it never feels good to see them struggle through a challenge: a bad test result, trouble with a friend, poor performance on the playing field. Teachers and coaches have a front-row seat to the difficulties that present, and the coaches’ roundtable discussion was designed to help parents understand how coaches interact with their children, especially when it comes to adversity.
I attended the session, and, of course, I’m crazy about my Susan. I wished I had recorded her to share with our children. To my great surprise, I came across a short clip of her discussion from the Coaches Roundtable about adversity, highlighting its value in experiencing it, and offering some ideas on how to cope with it.
Click on the image to watch the video. I’m biased, of course. Hope you enjoy what she has to say!
From Malvern Prep: At our inaugural Coaches Roundtable, Head Varsity Soccer Coach Susan Barr shared a powerful message: Hard work and overcoming adversity, both in the classroom and on the field, always pay off. #friars
Soccer update - The Friars are 8-9-2. Just below 500, but the Coaches boys qualified for the Pennsylvania State tournament. Game one is today near Pittsburgh, PA, vs. the Kiski School. The highlight of the week was a 2-1 win against Interac’s top team, Penn Charter. Adversity is a two-win, seven-loss record in the last nine games. The play has been a joy to watch. Goal scoring has been the team’s challenge.
A win today advances the team in the tournament. Coach Sue remains positive, as does the team. One more regular-season game remains. What a joy it is to watch these young men grow! The world will be just fine. Go Friars.
Penn State plays Ohio State in football tomorrow afternoon. I’ll be watching with one eye on the TV and one eye on the exit door. Ugh! Go LIONS.
I’ll be in Denver next week at the annual Schwab conference and in Austin the following week for a family office event. Son Matthew lives in Denver, and a reservation is already booked at our favorite sushi spot. Sushi with Matt, that’s a big win.
Happy Halloween! Don’t eat too much candy.
Have a great week,
Steve
CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO ON MY RADAR - IT’S FREE
You can share this letter on X by clicking here.
You can share this letter on LinkedIn by clicking here.
Subscribe to OMR for free by clicking the photo.
Stephen B. Blumenthal
Executive Chairman & CIO
CMG Capital Management Group, Inc.
75 Valley Stream Parkway, Suite 201, Malvern, PA 19355
Private Wealth Client Website
CMG Customer Relationship Summary (Form CRS)
Metric-Financial, LLC Customer Relationship Summary (Form CRS)
Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management. Author of Forbes Book: On My Radar, Navigating Stock Market Cycles.
Follow Steve on X @SBlumenthalCMG and LinkedIn.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This document is prepared by CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. (“CMG”) and is circulated for informational and educational purposes only. There is no consideration given to the specific investment needs, objectives, or tolerances of any of the recipients. Additionally, CMG’s actual investment positions may, and often will, vary from its conclusions discussed herein based on any number of factors, such as client investment restrictions, portfolio rebalancing, and transaction costs, among others. Recipients should consult their own advisors, including tax advisors, before making any investment decision. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned. This material does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors which are necessary considerations before making any investment decision. Investors should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, where appropriate, seek professional advice, including legal, tax, accounting, investment, or other advice. The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
Investing involves risk.
This letter may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and future performance of the various investment markets, indices, and investments. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; “believe,” anticipate,” “planned,” “potential,” and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular market, index, investment, or investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to, general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in legislation or regulation, Federal Reserve policy, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory, and technological factors affecting markets, indices, investments, investment strategy and portfolio positioning that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involve a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements or examples. All statements made herein speak only as of the date that they were made. Investing is inherently risky and all investing involves the potential risk of loss.
Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CMG), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CMG. Please remember to contact CMG, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. CMG is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice.
No portion of the content should be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. References to specific securities, investment programs or funds are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.
This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses realized or unrealized, by any CMG client from any specific funds or securities. Please note: In the event that CMG references performance results for an actual CMG portfolio, the results are reported net of advisory fees and inclusive of dividends. The performance referenced is that as determined and/or provided directly by the referenced funds and/or publishers, has not been independently verified, and does not reflect the performance of any specific CMG client. CMG clients may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. See in links provided citing limitations of hypothetical back-tested information. Past performance cannot predict or guarantee future performance. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please talk to your advisor.
Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its accuracy. This document is general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purposes.
In a rising interest rate environment, the value of fixed-income securities generally declines, and conversely, in a falling interest rate environment, the value of fixed-income securities generally increases. High-yield securities may be subject to heightened market, interest rate, or credit risk and should not be purchased solely because of the stated yield. Ratings are measured on a scale that ranges from AAA or Aaa (highest) to D or C (lowest). Investment-grade investments are those rated from highest down to BBB- or Baa3.
NOT FDIC INSURED. MAY LOSE VALUE. NO BANK GUARANTEE.
Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
In the event that there has been a change in an individual’s investment objective or financial situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with his/her investment professional.
Written Disclosure Statement. CMG is an SEC-registered investment adviser located in Malvern, Pennsylvania. Stephen B. Blumenthal is CMG’s founder and CEO. Please note: The above views are those of CMG and its CEO, Stephen Blumenthal, and do not reflect those of any sub-advisor that CMG may engage to manage any CMG strategy, or exclusively determines any internal strategy employed by CMG. A copy of CMG’s current written disclosure statement discussing advisory services and fees is available upon request or via CMG’s internet web site at www.cmgwealth.com/disclosures. CMG is committed to protecting your personal information. Click here to review CMG’s privacy policies.
