On My Radar: A Bond Bear, A Value Hunter, and A Portfolio Architect (SIC 2026)
May 8, 2026
By Steve Blumenthal
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”
"The government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem and very often makes the problem worse."
— Milton Friedman
My favorite annual investment conference, The Mauldin Economics 2026 Strategic Investment Conference (SIC), kicked off this week, and I’ve been listening in and taking notes. If you’ve been reading OMR for years, you know just how much of a macroeconomic geek fest SIC is for me.
It’s hard not to enjoy being in a room with some of the world's greatest investment minds. Week one didn’t disappoint. I particularly enjoy challenging my personal views and watching the presenters stress-test each other’s views. John Mauldin and his team are masters at curating talent and sequencing the show.
The conference takes place virtually over a five-day period. This is Mauldin at his best, and his partner, Ed D’Augistino, MC’s the show. All the presentations are recorded. You can view the agenda and sign up here. (Please know, I am not compensated in any way. Just a big fan.)
Grab your coffee and find your favorite chair. Among the many presentations this week, I am sharing my notes on three of my favorites: Dr. Lacy Hunt, Peter Boockvar, and Louis-Vincent Gave.
While all three agree the global economy is facing a structural shift driven by energy and inflation, they differ on the primary "culprit" and the best way to protect from and take advantage of the coming storm.
Dr. Hunt’s shift is a "stop and stare" moment for macro observers; moving from a 40-year bullish stance on bonds to a defensive, short-duration posture is a significant signal of how seriously he takes what he calls a dual shock. Reheat, settle in, you’ll find my bullet point summary notes below.
On My Radar:
Personal Note: SEPA Hall of Fame
OMR is for informational and educational purposes only. No consideration is given to your specific investment needs, objectives, or tolerances.
Please see the Important Disclosures at the bottom of this page. Reminder: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. My views may change at any time. The information is for discussion and educational purposes only.
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Dr. Lacy Hunt - A Fed-Driven Liquidity Event and Oil Shock
In his 1970 lecture, Milton Friedman advocated a "k-percent rule," in which the money supply should grow at a fixed, predictable rate each year to allow for natural economic growth without inflation.
Dr. Lacy Hunt has pivoted from believing that rates will decline to being concerned that inflation and interest rates are heading higher. The word concerned is an understatement.
His current alarm stems from the Fed's abandonment of this "stable rule" mindset. In his SIC presentation this week, Lacy noted that since mid-December 2025, bank credit and "Other Deposit Liabilities" (ODL) have exploded, growing at double their historic growth rates, which is a direct violation of the stability that Friedman championed in his "Counter-Revolution.” See the Friedman video here.
Friedman’s primary conclusion was that the "invisible hand" is more effective than state intervention and that the private sector is inherently stable if the state simply controls the money supply. By abandoning this control in late 2025, Lacy argues the Fed has introduced "chaos" into what should be a self-correcting system.
Dr. Lacy Hunt’s presentation at the 2026 Strategic Investment Conference marks a significant pivot in his long-held economic thesis. Lacy is an economic legend. I’m a big fan and read his missives when he posts.
Lacy’s been bullish on bonds for as long as I can remember. I’ve been bearish on bonds, having written about a generational low in bonds back in the spring of 2020. The end of the long-term debt cycle and the likelihood that the Fed will print, print, and print even more. We’ve witnessed just that, and I believe it will continue. His investment strategy is simple: his firm invests in long-term Treasury bonds or moves 100% into short-duration Treasury Bills. He admits in his presentation that he was wrong. For the reasons outlined below, he is not 100% invested in T-Bills.
Why? Lacy argues that the U.S. is currently caught in a rare and dangerous "double shock": a massive, unrecognized liquidity impulse from the Federal Reserve colliding with a major global oil supply disruption.
The following summary explores his analysis of these two forces, why he believes they have fundamentally changed the trajectory of inflation, and his surprising new outlook for the direction of interest rates.
A Dual-Front Crisis
Lacy sees two powerful inflationary engines that were sparked in late 2025 and early 2026
Fed Error: He pointed to a major "policy error" beginning in mid-December 2025, when the Fed began buying $40 billion in Treasury bills per month. While the Fed termed this a "technical plumbing operation," Hunt proves it was a massive liquidity infusion that caused bank loans and leases to explode at double their historic growth rates.
The 2026 Oil Shock: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has created, Hunt calls it, the greatest structural damage to energy markets in modern times. He estimates that oil prices directly and indirectly account for 12% to 15% of the cost of living, meaning the current shock could lift the CPI by as much as 240 to 300 basis points.
By combining these two events, Hunt argues that the Fed has shifted the aggregate demand curve outward, just as the supply curve has shifted inward. In plain English, this has created inflationary momentum that is likely to push the CPI above 4.5%, or even 5%, in the coming months.
Because these shocks are global, Lacy is seeing a rapid decline in world trade volume, proceeding even faster than in previous oil shocks, which acts as a "high multiplier" for economic contraction.
The Direction of Interest Rates: A Historic Reversal
For the first time in over 20 years, Lacy has reversed his long-standing call for lower interest rates. His new outlook for the bond market is decidedly bearish.
Upward Trend in Yields: He said, in the current environment, long-term Treasury yields will trend upward.
Short-duration exposure: Reflecting this view, he noted that his firm has reduced its portfolio duration to under one year, seeking safety on the short end of the curve as risks to bond yields remain to the upside.
To stabilize the market, Hunt believes the new Fed chairman must reverse the entire $300 billion increase in the Treasury bill portfolio as quickly as possible.
Recession risk:
Lacy warned that "unwinding" this liquidity error, while high oil prices are destroying demand, makes a deep recession nearly unavoidable. (SB: bold emphasis mine)
On timing: He expects it will take five to nine months for the full weight of these shocks to pull the economy into a formal downturn.
Target: October 2026 to February 2027
Summary:
Lacy concluded that the Federal Reserve's decision to pump liquidity into the system just before the 2026 energy crisis has created a "stagflationary" trap that can only be solved by aggressive Fed balance sheet reduction.
For investors, this transition means bracing for higher plateaued inflation and rising long-term yields as the economy moves toward a difficult, policy-driven recession.
Lacy believes the direction of interest rates following a recession will depend heavily on whether the Federal Reserve successfully "normalizes" its balance sheet.
Here is the sequence of events he expects:
In the near term, he expects the trend in long-term Treasury yields to remain upward due to inflationary momentum from the oil shock and prior monetary policy errors.
He notes that "reversing the quantitative easing" (the liquidity infusion from late 2025) will eventually lead to reverse effects on asset prices (down) and credit spreads (higher and wider).
Longer-term: He warned that the path to lower inflation and lower rates usually comes at a high cost. He pointed out that bringing the inflation rate down typically requires destroying demand, much like high oil prices do.
Lacy’s Post-Recession Outlook:
While he is currently positioned in short-term Treasuries because he expects yields to rise, he suggests that a recession will eventually burn out inflation.
However, he emphasized that if the Fed tries to cushion the economic pain of that recession too early, as Arthur Burns did in 1974, it risks perpetuating inflation and causing an even deeper downturn later.
In conclusion, Lacy expects rates to trend higher until the Fed aggressively drains liquidity, which will likely trigger a recession that eventually, but painfully, brings inflation and yields back down.
Opinions are subject to change. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only.
Peter Boockvar - The Two-Lane Economy
In his 2026 Strategic Investment Conference presentation, Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, provided a "powerhouse" analysis of a deeply uneven economy.
He argues that while headline GDP figures suggest stability, the "under the hood" reality is a stark bifurcation between a booming AI-driven tech sector and a struggling middle- to lower-income consumer base.
The following examines his views on current economic drivers, the hidden risks in the tech trade, and his specific, contrarian investment ideas for a post-war environment.
The Economic View: A Tale of Two Lanes
Peter describes a "two-lane highway" where different segments of the economy are moving at vastly different speeds.
The AI and Data Center Boom: A massive contributor to current GDP is the build-out of data centers, with an estimated 650 million square feet currently under construction or announced. This AI trade is driving strong demand for semiconductors, electrical equipment, and even basic materials such as cement and gravel.
The Struggling Consumer: In the other lane, lower- to middle-income consumers are facing significant financial strain due to the cumulative impact of inflation and high interest rates. Peter noted that while spending among upper-income households remains resilient, the broader consumer base is increasingly price-sensitive, as evidenced by rising demand at food banks.
This stood out:
Peter warned that the recent “pull-forward” in manufacturing and tech ordering may not be entirely organic.
Instead, companies are front-loading orders to get ahead of feared price increases and supply chain disruptions caused by the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.
On Housing: High mortgage rates have essentially frozen the existing home market, with transaction volumes no higher than they were 30 years ago despite a much larger population. Peter noted that the population was much lower than.
SB Here - quick side note: U.S. Census Bureau Estimate: As of July 1, 1996, the Census Bureau estimated the population at 265,283,783. It was reported to be 331.4 million in the 2020 Decennial Census. Source: US Census Bureau
Investment Outlook: From Tech Concentration to Global Value
Peter’s investment thesis is centered on the idea that the "pendulum" is starting to swing away from U.S. tech dominance toward overlooked international and value sectors.
He highlights a major shift in the "Mag 7" hyperscalers, once asset-light businesses, are now becoming much more capital-intensive.
Massive CapEx spending on data centers is expected to significantly reduce free cash flow for companies like Meta, Google, and Amazon in 2026.
The Bond Bear Market:
Despite some central bank activity, Peter believes the bond bear market continues, with long-term interest rates hiking throughout the developed world as investors focus on debt, deficits, and structural inflation.
Contrarian Opportunities:
He likes Consumer Staples. He noted he is a buyer of "hated" stocks with attractive valuations and good dividend yields. Kraft Heinz (7% dividend yield) was mentioned, with the note that its struggles are largely reflected in its current price.
Energy and Commodities: He remains long and bullish on energy stocks, viewing them as essential hedges in a high-cost environment.
International Markets: Peter is bullish on Asia, particularly China and Vietnam, and sees a "massive catch-up trade" coming for international equities that have historically underperformed the S&P 500.
Unique Turnarounds: He highlights Manchester United (undervalued relative to team worth) and Under Armor (a turnaround story). NOT A RECOMMENDATION FOR YOU TO BUY OR SELL ANYTHING, THOUGH MY INTEREST IS PEAKED AS I AM A LONG-TIME MAN U FAN.
In summary, Peter Boockvar’s 2026 outlook is a call for investors to look "under the hood" and move beyond the surface-level enthusiasm of the stock market. He concluded that the U.S. economy’s "all in" bet on AI has created a dangerous concentration that ignores the widening cracks in the broader consumer and housing sectors.
He said it is not a “K” economy but more like an “i” economy, with the wealthy the dot and the rest of the population the lower part of the i.
By pivoting toward deeply unloved value stocks, energy, and international markets, he believes investors can navigate the "extraordinordinarily uneven" landscape that defines the current state of play.
Louis-Vincent Gave - The Shift in Global Industrial Might
In his 2026 SIC presentation, Louis-Vincent Gave, co-founder of Gavekal Research, presented his analysis of a world in which China has moved from a producer of "low-quality goods" to a global leader in industrial automation and high-end manufacturing. He argues that the West's focus on "green-first" energy policies has kneecapped its own industrial competitiveness, while China's "energy pyramid" has given it a massive strategic advantage.
In short, he sees a changing global order, the rise of the renminbi, and he suggests a radical redesign of the traditional 60-40 stocks-bonds investment portfolio.
My bullet point notes follow:
China’s leapfrogs the West with its massive energy edge
Gave believes the global economy is now centered on a shift in industrial power and resource management to China
He shared an anecdote about the commoditization of the TV market, predicting the same will happen to cars. He notes that China has entered the auto industry so aggressively that "profits walk out" as margins and prices collapse.
Following U.S. semiconductor restrictions in 2018, China shifted its savings away from real estate and toward industrial self-sufficiency. This "economy at war" footing allowed China to become the world's largest auto exporter by 2023.
China prioritizes reliable, cheap energy first and green energy third. By building a massive grid and storing more oil and gas than the rest of the world combined, China has gained a permanent "leg up" in global competition.
He noted China’s "Blatantly Undervalued" Currency and described the renminbi as the world’s "most mispriced asset," citing China’s record $ 1.3 trillion trade surplus as proof that the currency must eventually revalue upward.
Gave’s Investment Outlook: The Death of the 60/40 Portfolio
Gave’s investment thesis is a direct challenge to traditional Western portfolio construction, which he believes has failed to protect investors from inflation (SB Note Here: bonds have lost money for ~ 6 years).
Developed Market Bonds are "Dead": He argues that government bonds in the U.S., Europe, and Japan have "failed to diversify" and have instead destroyed value over the past five years. This likely continues.
Gave’s "Benchmark" Portfolio: Gave proposes replacing the 60/40 stocks-bonds or 50/50 models with a 60/20/20 Equity/Gold/Energy allocation. He noted that this "yellow portfolio" has handsomely outperformed traditional models since 2021.
He is bullish on Latin America: Despite his focus on China, Gave is most bullish on Latin America. He believes the U.S. is now "underwriting" growth in the region, which will lead to what he called a "triple merit scenario" of rising currencies, falling interest rates, and rising asset prices.
Energy Plays: He favors refiners (due to global refinery destruction), coal miners (for reliable energy needs in Asia and Europe), and Americas-based oil producers to avoid the geopolitical risks of the Middle East.
In summary, Gave’s 2026 outlook warns that the foundation of the Western financial architecture, the U.S. Treasury, is shifting as countries look for more tangible reserves like gold and energy.
He concludes that while the U.S. Navy's control over sea lanes is being challenged at key chokepoints, the ultimate, he calls, “easy trade," is betting on the rising renminbi and on industrial regions that have the lowest cost of energy and capital.
A Quick Compare and Contrast
I uploaded this week’s Hunt-Boockvar-Gave OMR notes into AI and asked it to compare and contrast the views.
This is what I got:
1. The Primary Driver: What is breaking the system?
Hunt: Attributes the crisis to a massive Fed policy error. He argues that an unrecognized $300 billion liquidity injection by the Fed in late 2025 collided with the oil shock, creating a "horrendous" inflationary trap.
Boockvar: Sees a bifurcated "two-lane" economy. He believes the system is being distorted by an "all-in" bet on AI and data centers that masks the severe financial strain felt by lower- to middle-income consumers.
Gave: Focuses on a geopolitical and industrial shift. He argues that China has leapfrogged the West by prioritizing cheap, reliable energy, while Western "green-first" policies have essentially kneecapped domestic industry.
2. Inflation:
Hunt: Believes inflation is being "permatized" by the Fed's balance sheet expansion. He expects the CPI to push above 4.5% or 5% and stay there until the Fed aggressively drains liquidity.
Boockvar: Identifies a "pull-forward" mirage. He argues that much of the current activity is a desperate attempt by companies to front-load orders before what I called last week, the coming “Energy Tax,” resulting from the Strait of Hormuz blockage, hits consumers. He believes interest rates are heading higher.
Gave: Views inflation through the lens of currency and energy mispricing. He sees a "nasty inflation shock" that will eventually force the U.S. to make a deal with China to secure cheaper goods and raw materials.
3. Investment Strategy: Where to hide?
Hunt (The Bond Bear): In a historic reversal, Lacy is now short duration. He has moved his portfolio to the short end of the curve (under one year) because he expects the trend for long-term Treasury yields to remain upward.
Boockvar (The Value Hunter): He is pivoting toward "hated" value stocks. He favors unloved consumer staples like Kraft Heinz (noting a 7% dividend yield), energy producers, and international "catch-up" trades in Asia and emerging markets. He is bullish on energy and gold.
Gave (The Portfolio Architect): He declares the 60/40 portfolio dead. He advocates for a "Yellow Portfolio" consisting of 60% Equities, 20% Gold, and 20% Energy. He is also highly bullish on the Renminbi and Latin American debt.
That concludes the notes from three of the sessions at this week’s SIC. Hat tip to John, Ed, and the Mauldin Economics team.
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Personal Note: SEPA Hall of Fame
This weekend will be a special one for our family. My wife, Susan Barr, “Coach Sue” to generations of players, is being inducted into the Southeastern Pennsylvania Soccer Hall of Fame. A well-deserved honor for someone who has poured her heart into young people, teamwork, competition, and character for decades.
She joins a long line of Philadelphia soccer legends, including Penn State coach and U.S. soccer pioneer Walter Bahr (SEPA 1986). Different spelling, same deep love of the game.
One of Walter Bahr’s great quotes was: “The older I get, the more famous I become. I wasn’t famous for 50 years.” Always humble. Grounded. Team first. Quick wit/humor. That’s how I recall Coach Bahr.
Humble. Grounded. Love for the game. Giant heart. That’s how hundreds of players and I know Coach Sue.
Philadelphia has long been one of the great soccer cities in America. Neighborhood fields, ethnic clubs, lifelong friendships, and coaches who shaped far more than wins and losses. The lessons were always bigger than the scoreboard.
I’ve had a front-row seat to watching Susan help young men and women become better players, teammates, and people. That’s the real win.
I’m incredibly proud of her.
Glasses high this week to Coach Sue, and to all the coaches, mentors, and teachers who quietly lift the world in ways they may never truly know.
And glasses high for the most important people on the planet, moms. Happy Mother’s Day!!!
With kind regards,
Steve
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Stephen B. Blumenthal
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Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management. Author of Forbes Book: On My Radar, Navigating Stock Market Cycles.
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