On My Radar - The Greatest Game
May 30, 2025
By Steve Blumenthal
“You’re the kind of person who starts the day with a quote, a coffee, and a mission to make sense of the chaos. You don’t just watch the market — you listen to it. You dig for signal through the noise, seek out nuance, and appreciate diverse perspectives, whether it’s from Ray Dalio or reggae lyrics.”
— ChatGPT, May 30, 2025
I was using ChatGPT yesterday, asking it to conduct an analysis on various competitors in the GLP1 space, but before I could type in what I was looking for, a prompt appeared asking if I wanted ChatGPT to tell me what it had learned about me. Creepy, I thought, but couldn’t resist.
The feedback was broader than the intro quote above. I showed it to my wife, Susan, and we shared the same sense of puzzled shock. If you haven’t used AI for deep research, consider it. I use ChatGPT, Gemini, ClaudeAI, and Grok. None are perfect, but this is going somewhere that is both helpful and risky.
There’s a story I came across recently that stopped me in my tracks; not a market headline, but a metaphor. Mo Gawdat, a former Google AI exec, said that raising artificial intelligence is a bit like how the Kents raised Superman. If you remember the story, baby Kal-El crash-landed in a Kansas field. Jonathan and Martha Kent could have hidden him, feared him, or used him for their gain. But they didn’t. They raised him with ethics, humility, and a fierce love for doing good (source).
Gawdat’s point is that we, humanity, are the Kents now. We are raising AI. What we teach, how we guide, and the values we instill will shape what it becomes. If we raise AI with greed, it may grow into something dangerous. If we raise it with compassion, it could become a remarkable force for good.
That struck a chord.
But let’s step out of the AI rabbit hole we've journeyed down and shift back to markets.
To me, markets are like a global chess match where each participant, from novice to grandmaster, moves their capital in pursuit of their own best interests. The intersection of these decisions is price. The winners? They create wealth.
But, I also seek meaning. To position capital not only where it grows best, but where it does the most good - fueling innovation, sustaining essential businesses, and shaping a better world, making investing The Greatest Game.
Markets aren’t just systems; they are stories. And there is always a good story.
Grab a coffee and find your favorite chair. Put your macroeconomic hat back on and let’s continue this week with more from the Mauldin Economics 2025 Strategic Investment Conference, seeking to find “the signal through the noise.” Below, you’ll find an excellent summary of David Rosenberg and Jim Bianco’s presentations, as written by the conference host and grand master himself, my dear friend, John Mauldin. Clear eyes, full heart, let’s go.
On My Radar:
John Mauldin: David Rosenberg - Team Transitory
John Mauldin: James Bianco - Murder Weapons
Trade Signals: Update - May 29, 2025
Personal Note: The Knicks, the Pacers, and the Will to Compete
See Important Disclosures at the bottom of this page. Reminder: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. My views may change at any time. The information is for discussion purposes only.
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John Mauldin: David Rosenberg - Team Transitory
I’m going to get out of the way and let John share his perspective and his summary of Rosey’s and Bianco’s presentations. You’ll find they differ on inflation. Take in the information and I share a few of my comments at the end.
From John,
“The Strategic Investment Conference is over. I’m now in my annual recovery period, during which I try to absorb the informational firehose I (with thousands of others) just experienced.
I often find SIC’s key insights come from unexpected directions. I spend months organizing the agenda in what I think is a comprehensible way. But once we get going, it takes on a life of its own. I’ve learned not to draw quick conclusions. This post-event consolidation period is just as important as the event itself.
I find that reviewing the transcripts thematically really helps get some perspective. For instance, various speakers said something about inflation or geopolitics or the markets almost every day. Putting them together makes it much easier to come to my own conclusions or at least understand the nuances.
My next few letters will share some initial thoughts from SIC organized around the major topics. Today we’ll start with inflation, and specifically the sharply different views of David Rosenberg and Jim Bianco, then balance them with some thoughts from other speakers. David and Jim are good friends whose analysis I’ve found very useful over the years. It’s hard to see how both are right this time, but the contrast between them is enlightening.
First, let me remind everyone you can still join me for SIC and get all the benefits. Our online portal has videos, transcripts, and slide decks for every session. You can listen to the sessions on your walks or in your workout. It’s not live but is the next best thing. Click here to get instant access.
Now, let’s talk about inflation.
Dave Rosenberg: Still on Team Transitory
The near-term US economic forecast hinges mostly on trade and tariff questions, along with uncertainty over how everyone will react. Generally, views fall into three categories: recession, inflation and a “stagflation” scenario in between.
David Rosenberg is firmly in the recession camp. In fact, he was already expecting a recession even before Trump launched the current trade war. Now he thinks the trade war’s impact on consumers will be the final straw.
The US is uniquely vulnerable because our economy is the most dependent on consumer spending and has the lowest personal savings:
Here’s how Dave explained it (from the transcript).
“It's the structure of the US economy. I mean, take a look at this chart. For anybody that's saying, ‘Oh, well, the United States is being ripped off,’ no. It's simply because the United States is run on consumer spending. There's no country in the world where consumer spending as a share of GDP is as high…
“Most countries have actually a national sales tax [VAT]. You would never get that passed through the United States. You can't put a sales tax on the consumer. The consumer runs the economy. Not investment, the consumer.
“What country has a lower savings rate? What country has as much a consumption share of GDP? And there's a 95% correlation between consumer spending and imports. So, for the people that support this view that we have to eliminate all these trade deficits the United States runs, well, then maybe we have to basically take the US economy and make it more European or Asian in nature, embrace frugality, and that way we'll have less consumption and fewer imports.”
As Dave sees it, we’re about to have a collision between already-weakening consumer spending and tariff-induced price increases. The former points to recession, the latter to inflation. How will this develop? Dave expects inflation first, which will be transitory for a specific reason.
Again, from the transcript:
“Take a look at the latest New York Fed report. Only the one-year inflation expectation measure is hooked up. The three year is moving sideways. The five years hooked down, and everybody's selling their bonds. Inflation. Inflation. Tariffs are inflation. It's a price shock. It's a price shock. And I know people will laugh at transitory, but there's a reason why it wasn't transitory back in 2021 and 2022. There's a reason.
“And the reason why it will be transitory, I'm not ashamed to use that word again, even though Jay Powell won't, is because of the labor market. The reason why the inflation lasted longer than we all thought, certainly than I thought, was because it triggered at least an 18-month wage and price spiral because the labor market was tightening. And because people are getting paid to stay out of work and not work because of the gigantic mismatch in labor demand and supply, the price shock, supply price shock from COVID transmitted into wages.
“I got news for you. It ain't going to happen this time around. It's not about the 4.2% lagging unemployment rate. Beneath the surface you're seeing a big drop in labor demand, job openings down, hiring rates down, job hopping way down. Totally different complexion to the job market today.”
The difference now, as Dave sees it, is that workers are far less confident than they were in 2021-2023. This is evident in surveys showing much higher fear of job loss and lower wage expectations. These conditions won’t produce a wage-price spiral, without which it will be hard for inflation to gain a foothold. Regardless of tariff rates, Dave expects significantly lower inflation 12 months from now.
Unfortunately, the inflation will give way to recession, and here’s why. Read this quote carefully.
“… The household sector of America has never before had $50 trillion of exposure of equities on their balance sheet. Nobody this cycle has rebalanced. Diversification became a dirty 15 letter word - buy every dip.
“Take a look at what the equity ownership was going into the tech wreck. Barely more than $10 trillion. Going into the financial crisis, $15 trillion. Now we're at $50 trillion so there's a lot at stake here…
“71% of the household financial assets is in stocks. Who wants bonds? 8% in bonds. Bonds are for losers. Who shows up at the cocktail party talking about the belly of the curve? No one will talk to you. No. We'll talk about Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100.
“But what's most important is the boomers… The median boomer is now age 70. It's not 45 or 50 or 55 as it was going into the Great Financial Crisis. And over 60% of the boomers' portfolio is in the equity market. It should be 30 to 40%. Time is not on their side. And I shudder to think what happens if this ever shrinks when you're taking a look at the biggest exposures to equities are in the wrong demographic. Nobody talks about what the future consequences are going to be, especially on the labor market.
“Because when they can see that their retirement plans with their golden goose is not going to be coming to fruition, they might be lining up at Walmart for a job only to find out that robots taking that over. So this is what a recession looks like for those that actually believe in the LEI, for those that believe in the New York Fed model. We're not out of the woods. By the way, I think that the best that I can say is that there will not be a bad recession at this point. It could have been, but I do think that we're going to be seeing at least two or three quarters of mild negative GDP.”
Baby Boomers, generally speaking (you may be an exception), are deeply overexposed to the kind of equity bear market that usually accompanies even mild recessions. Many will be fine anyway, but a significant number could see their retirement plans dashed. Some will re-enter the workforce, further depressing wages and raising the unemployment rate.
This is problematic because broad stock market indexes always fall during a recession. Rosie gave us this chart:
Dave made a compelling case for this scenario. But hold that thought until you consider a different view.
John Mauldin: James Bianco - Murder Weapons
Jim Bianco looks at the cycle differently. To him, recessions are not a natural phenomenon. What’s natural in a capitalist economy is for growth to continue until something stops it.
When bad companies are allowed to fail and new ideas are free to develop, the economy changes but doesn’t have to shrink. Jim quotes the MIT economist who famously said in the 1970s, “Economic expansions don’t die of old age, they are murdered.”
If recession is looming, what will the murder weapon be this time? At SIC, Jim went through a series of high-frequency indicators like retail sales and weekly jobless claims. This “hard data” doesn’t show much cause for concern. Of course it could change, and the “soft data” says change may be coming. But it’s not here yet.
What is here, according to Jim, is inflation, and it’s not transitory at all. It’s more like a new normal. He thinks the post-COVID inflation marked a major change.
“I would postulate that inflation moves in big cycles. The inflationary cycle started in 1965. It ended in 1991, although it peaked in 1981, but it ended in 1991 with the fall of the Soviet Union. We went into a long disinflationary period. That ended with COVID, and I would argue to you that most economists and most people don't recognize that we're in Year 5 of a new inflation cycle, and that they still think we're in the Red era [see chart below].
“When you have a recession or a financial crisis, and we had both, the economy changes. Change does not mean worse. It means different. It changed. The economy changed post-COVID.”
Jim shared this chart illustrating his point. The “normal” inflation range clearly shifted higher after 2020.
I’ve talked about this before. The COVID pandemic and all the events around it changed the economy in ways we still don’t fully understand. Jim thinks it pushed us into a new inflation cycle, which was already underway before Trump started imposing tariffs. But the tariffs won’t help. Here’s Jim again.
“Tariffs mean higher prices. Who's going to eat those prices? If Trump is right and if some of Wall Street are right that we have no increase in inflation coming because of tariffs, then let's pick up the chisels and start putting Trump on Mount Rushmore right now…
“If he could pull that off, if we find out that they're slapping all these tariffs on and billions and billions and billions of dollars are flowing into this country and prices aren't going up, then the Chinese are paying for it and maybe Walmart's eating a little bit of it, and Trump found a way to raise taxes on somebody who's not the rich or is not Americans, he should go right up on the Mount Rushmore. ‘Don't tax me, tax the man behind the tree. The man behind the tree is Chinese, and he found a way to tax them.
“I don't think that's the case. I think we're going to find that prices go up and inflation is going to go up, and in this environment when inflation goes up, that means that the Fed holds. So, the path of least resistance on bond yields is going to be higher, and I think that it's going to be problematic for markets.”
Baseline inflation is now close to 3%. The “neutral” inflation rate (what the Fed calls “r-star”) is around 1 percentage point higher, so 4%, just below the current federal funds range. That means the Fed’s current policy is neither loose nor tight. If inflation forces them to get restrictive, we’re looking at 5% or more at the short end and even higher at the long end, unless the yield curve stays flat.
Higher interest rates might well trigger a recession. Jim isn’t sure about that. But he’s very sure inflation won’t go back to 2% any time soon. He went through a series of market-based expectations charts showing inflation remaining high until 2030.
A 10-year inflation wave (if this one started in 2020 and lasts until 2030) is not “transitory” by any definition. But Jim doesn’t see it as disastrous. Older readers will recall 7% or even 8% mortgages were normal in the 1990s. We’ll get through it.
Ugly Combination
Considering both the Rosenberg and Bianco views, the key question is when, if ever, will the pessimism seen in the “soft data” become consistently clear in the hard data? That might mean recession is getting closer.
Keep in mind, however, these aren’t either/or conditions. People can reduce spending by a little or a lot. Businesses can freeze hiring but not announce layoffs. There’s a lot of open territory between boom and bust.
This all gets much more troubling when I consider Lacy Hunt, who noted at SIC (as he has for years) that growing federal debt suppresses GDP growth. The latest news from Capitol Hill isn’t hopeful about making a dent in the debt.
This points toward the ugly combination of near-zero growth, if not outright recession, at the same time inflation stays elevated in ways most Americans haven’t experienced as adults. As Jim Bianco said, many of us are still mentally “anchored” in the near-ZIRP years when the Fed struggled to get inflation up to 2%. A severe recession could push inflation back down to those levels, but we wouldn’t like that, either.
Other Insights on Inflation
Of course, other SIC speakers talked about inflation, too. Let’s start with Barry Habib. Barry has won four out of the last seven Crystal Ball awards from Zillow for the most accurate mortgage interest rate predictions out of 150 economists and has always been in the top five. We should pay attention to what he has to say. Quoting:
“It's also interesting to understand Jerome Powell's take [on inflation]. So, Jerome Powell recently said that ‘…without price stability, we cannot achieve the long-term periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans.’ What's the translation? That the Fed has two mandates. Both mandates are very important and while if one gets extremely out of control just like an unruly child… You're going to reprimand that child, that's what the Fed will probably look at. But all things created equal…it appears that the Fed is currently thinking that inflation is more important than labor, at least for now. So, driving more Fed decisions will be inflation data as opposed to labor data, although both are critically important unless the labor data gets really out of control.
“The odds are that there's a chance that we should see inflation decline. I know that there's a lot of tariff stuff in between, but we should see inflation decline, although slowly, and that should mean that rates should decline [over time], and that should give us some clues on the housing market. Now that said, I think the core PCE inflation is going to be stubborn and it's going to be stubborn because the replacement values that we saw in the middle and second half of 2024 were pretty modest. So as new data comes out, it's going to replace the 2024 data and it will be hard to make year-over year progress in a very meaningful way. Probably hover around the 2.5-ish range. It's kind of where we see things on core PCE inflation, which will still be above the Fed's target.
“But one of the things they look at is that three-month and six-month run rate. And currently, the bad news is that the three-month and six-month run rates that the Fed looks at so carefully are running above the annual rates. So that's [the bad comparisons] got to get through the snake and that will make progress on year-over-year inflation stubborn, although the markets will respond favorably if we get good low month-over-month readings or monthly readings.”
That being said, Barry believes the Fed will cut rates two or three times this year even in the face of stubborn inflation. Barry has been very critical of Powell (as I have been) for several years for letting inflation get out of control. Powell is concerned about his legacy and seems afraid to let inflation come back. Barry thinks he is overestimating the strength of the labor market (he sees the labor market data similarly to David Rosenberg and Danielle DiMartino) and will soon have to react:
“Now, I think the Fed's going to get religion and get sober later…Maybe it's 2 cuts, maybe one's 50, one's 25, or maybe it's three 25 bp cuts, but second half of the year, as that unemployment rate rises, we get past some of the tariff uncertainty. There's going to be no cover for Jerome Powell. They're going to have to address the fact that the economy is not as strong as he thinks.”
That is why Barry thinks mortgage rates will also come down, closer to the 6% range. He spent a great deal of time going through his rationale on that.
Let me quickly summarize Peter Boockvar’s inflation view. Peter listens to over 100 earnings calls every quarter. Nearly every company is talking about raising prices. They are trying to find out how much of the tariffs they can pass through. Even if they eat some of the tax, prices are still going up to the end consumer. To the extent companies absorb the tariffs, it means lower earnings, capital investment or employment. Peter thinks this will start to show in the third quarter. And then we’ll see. And he points out that a falling dollar is inherently inflationary. The USD is down almost 10% since the beginning of the year.
I wish I had more space, but it’s time to wrap up. Next week we’ll stay with SIC, shifting our attention to another important topic.”
Here is the link to the full Thoughts From the Front Line Post.
SB here - A few concluding comments:
I believe Peter is correct in adding the direction of the dollar to the inflation equation. I see nothing in the “Big Beautiful Bill” that shows discipline towards cutting spending. Increasing the debt limit means printing more money, which in turn puts more pressure on inflation.
Yet, in the near term, the tariff's impact on growth will become evident, and, as Barry puts it, we will likely see inflation pressures ease. As I mentioned earlier, it will be key for us to keep our eye on the dollar and the long-term Treasury yields. The future policy response from the Fed and our legislators remains unknown. I think they’ll give us more sugar.
Why? The big elephant in the room remains out-of-control spending and debt (a monster of an ‘end of long-term debt accumulation cycle’ problem). We need to see the tough decisions made. So far, little progress. I love how Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) puts it: “there is no stopping this train.” I hope she is wrong, I fear she is right.
Watch the dollar and watch the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields.
Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change. Views are those of Howard Marks and not necessarily Steve Blumenthal’s nor CMG’s.The information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only.
Trade Signals: Update - May 29, 2025
“Stay on top of the current market trends with Trade Signals.”
“Extreme patience combined with extreme decisiveness. You may call that our investment process. Yes, it’s that simple.”
– Charlie MungerMarket Commentary:
Market Commentary:
Equity markets bounced between losses and gains yesterday and closed 0.40% higher following a solid earnings report from Nvidia. Trade and tariff news continues to remain a significant issue. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox News that trade talks with China are “a bit stalled.” I wish we had coordinated with our friends to address China instead of using a sledgehammer on everyone at the same time. Playing Monday morning quarterback is always easy. Bottom line: We have passed the point where tariff challenges won’t impact the economy. No wonder Scott Bessent has been looking stressed.
Currently, the S&P 500 Weekly MACD remains in a bull trend signal. The 10-year Treasury Weekly MACD trend is signaling rising yields, which is bearish for bonds.
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The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only.
Personal Note: The Knicks, the Pacers, and the Will to Compete
I’ve been a sports fan long enough to know what heartbreak feels like. The injuries, the fatigue, the moments where it all seems to slip away. And yet — last night — the Knicks found something. With their backs against the wall, they dug deep, played with heart, and refused to go quietly. Game six heads to Indiana tomorrow night. I’ll be watching.
I’m a diehard Philly fan through and through. But with my Sixers out and a soft spot for New York, I’m pulling for the Knicks. Let’s go, Knicks!
To my Oklahoma City Thunder readers, your team looks outstanding. A young squad with poise and talent. This is shaping up to be a fantastic NBA Finals.
I still remember watching professional basketball as a kid, when it seemed like the real season didn’t start until the playoffs. College hoops had heart. But today? I see grit, resilience, and fight in the NBA - and in the playoffs, that passion reaches another level.
And for the soccer fans out there: the Champions League Final kicks off tomorrow at 3 p.m. ET — PSG vs. Inter Milan. It doesn’t get better than this.
Wherever your passion lies - whether it's your grandchild stepping up to the plate, your son or daughter chasing a ball, playing an instrument, or taking the stage - I hope you find joy in watching them compete, grow, and shine. Whatever their “game” may be, may it bring meaning and light to your life.
Have a wonderful week!
Kind regards,
Steve
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Stephen B. Blumenthal
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CMG Capital Management Group, Inc.
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Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management. Author of Forbes Book: On My Radar, Navigating Stock Market Cycles.
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