OMR - Special Update - The Tariff Recession?
April 6, 2025
By Steve Blumenthal
I just finished reading my friend John Mauldin’s The Tariff Recession? — It’s excellent.
What will we wake up to on Monday morning? It’s anyone’s guess. If markets are getting hit hard again, I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump announces a grace period to allow time for negotiations.
Using the “trade deficit” to justify tariff levels doesn’t make much economic sense—unless, as I suspect, it’s simply a negotiating tactic. Start from an extreme position, then bargain from there.
Mauldin does a great job explaining things in a way that is accessible to a broader audience. I hope you find it as insightful as I did. Click on the image to go to the full piece. Personally, I think it reads even better in the PDF version, which you can find here.
Source: MauldinEconomics
See Important Disclosures at the bottom of this page. Reminder: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. My views may change at any time. The information is for discussion purposes only.
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Stephen B. Blumenthal
Executive Chairman & CIO
CMG Capital Management Group, Inc.
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Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management. Author of Forbes Book: On My Radar, Navigating Stock Market Cycles.
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