On My Radar: Technical Market Tools
April 10, 2026
By Steve Blumenthal
“I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second.”
— Paul Tudor Jones, Source Bespoke
"The secret to investing is to figure out the value of something, and then pay a lot less."
– Joel Greenblatt, Source Bespoke
Consumer prices rose 0.9% month-over-month, in line with estimates, while inflation rose 3.3% year-over-year (vs. estimates of 3.4%), as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
On the surface, nothing shocking.
But beneath the surface… the pressure is building.
Source: Bloomberg
My friend Peter Boockvar summed it up well in his Boock Report note this morning,
“Bottom line, a not unexpectedly hot headline but more tame core. That said, we have to understand that it will take months for the higher energy prices, along with plastics, packaging, etc… to flow into the core rate.”
Peter highlighted what WD-40 said in their earnings call last night,
“Subsequent to our quarter end, recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East have contributed to the increased costs of certain petroleum based specialty chemicals and other input costs, which will impact our cost of products sold. There is typically a delay of between 90 and 120 days before changes in cost of raw materials impact our cost of products sold, due to production and inventory lifecycles.” Source: BoockReport
I’m sure you are up to speed on the latest developments in the war with Iran, so no additional comments this week. If you missed last week’s OMR titled “Mutually Assured Economic Destruction,” you can find it here.
Grab that coffee… and put on your geek glasses.
Below, I’ll walk you through what I’m seeing in price across markets — stocks, bonds, gold, commodities, and currencies. I’m also tracking Scott Bessent’s 3-3-3 plan and how it’s progressing.
Hint: Not well.
As you read, keep this from Warren Buffett top of mind:
“Cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless.”
We’ll come back to what that “courage” level might look like.
Reminder: Not a recommendation for you to buy or sell anything.
On My Radar:
OMR is for informational and educational purposes only. No consideration is given to your specific investment needs, objectives, or tolerances.
Please see the Important Disclosures at the bottom of this page. Reminder: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. My views may change at any time. The information is for discussion and educational purposes only.
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Technical Market Tools
Each week, for more years than I can remember, I look at what price is telling us about the dominant trends in the various markets. The objective is to avoid major market mistakes (risk management) and, in combination with valuation evidence, identify periods of significant opportunity.
The following is from the most recent Trade Signals post.
The Indicators Dashboard analyzes Daily, Weekly, and Monthly trends across major markets. The objective is to align market technicals with investment fundamentals.
Each week, I share price trend signals for the broad markets (U.S. stocks, treasury yields, international developed and emerging markets, commodities, the dollar, gold, oil, etc) broken down into three time frames:
The Daily MACD Trend is ~ 8 days to 20 days
The Weekly MACD Trend is ~ 8 weeks to 20 weeks
The Monthly MACD Trend is ~ 8 months to 20 months
I tend to favor monthly MACDs to identify the dominant investment trend and use weekly and daily MACDs for tactical trading.
The green text and arrows indicate a bullish trend, red indicates a bearish trend, and orange means a change in trend is near. The last four weeks are shown to give you a sense of trends and changes. The lower section looks at Economic, Inflation, Recession, and Currency indicators. Remember, this is a weekly dashboard to provide a broad perspective on what is happening. I plot the information each week to help me keep a finger on the pulse of the markets.
CMG Investment Research, Trade Signals
Let’s also take a look at an overall “Market Summary.” Think of it as a high-level overview of various markets, current fundamentals, and other macroeconomic indicators.
Note, you may have to expand your screen for easier viewing.
A quick note on recession: The majority of recession watch indicators show no sign of an immediate recession; thus, I rate the short-term risk as low. The orange color indicates a potential change in signal. There is still moderate growth in the U.S. economy. The Strait of Hormuz-Iran situation may prove to be a massive shock to the global economic system. We have to keep a close eye on this.
Lastly, I plot Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s 3-3-3 plan to see if he is hitting his mark.
Here is some color: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s 3-3-3 game plan is a framework designed to improve the U.S. fiscal position (added to the Market Summary section above due to the goal's significance). Source: Advisorpedia.
If the title is highlighted red, it means he is not hitting his target. All three of the 3-3-3 are red.
3% GDP GrowthTarget— Most recent official GDP data
Q4 2025 (latest finalized): +0.5% annualized growth
This was revised down from earlier estimates (1.4% → 0.7% → 0.5%), showing a meaningful slowdown late last year
What that means
The economy decelerated sharply from +4.4% in Q3 2025 to just +0.5%
Drivers of the slowdown:
Weaker business investment
Softer consumer spending
Drag from government spending and exports
3% Budget Deficit-to-GDP Ratio — The current number is 6%. Well above Bessent’s target. With GDP at ~ $30 trillion, Bessent’s goal implies a deficit of no more than $900 billion. Today, the deficit exceeds $1.8 trillion. Put simply, the U.S. is spending around $7 trillion annually while bringing in just $5 trillion in tax revenue.
3 Million Barrel-per-Day Increase in U.S. Oil Production — The starting point was 13.2 million barrels per day (June 2025). The plan calls for boosting output by an additional 3 million barrels per day. About 13.8 million barrels per day were reported for the week ending January 2, 2026. Up .6 million bpd - well short of 3 million. We’re not there yet.
Additionally, I’ve added CPI “Inflation” to the dashboard. Red means it is currently above the Fed and Bessent’s 2% target. Not reflected in the dashboard is this morning’s 3.3% inflation print. I’ll get that updated next week.
The big picture: If Bessent’s 3-3-3 targets are met, it could mark a meaningful step toward stabilizing America’s growing debt burden. We’ll keep tracking the progress.
Bottom line: For traders, I see the current equity market environment as “sell the rallies” rather than “buy the dips.” While not perfect, the Weekly MACD does a good job at identifying the current trend. Fundamentally, I’ll be interested in the general equity market, with the S&P 500 “Median Fair Value” (based on Median PE) at ~4,500. Call that the “buy the big dip” entry target. That is about 30% below current levels. I share that chart again with you below.
It will feel like a crisis when we get there. When you are extremely scared, that will be a good buy signal.
"The secret to investing is to figure out the value of something, and then pay a lot less." Joel Greenblatt, Source Bespoke
With all that said, there are plenty of opportunities. I’m bullish on energy, metals, and commodities in general. And, if you own good, free-cash-flow companies that pay nice dividends and have low debt, keep your head down and stay the course. I’d trade fixed income vs. buy-and-hold bonds or seek bond-like alternatives. The big macro risk is rising inflation and interest rates (driven by government debt and money printing).
Source: NDR, CMG annontations
When a recession presents, and the market corrects, remember that investors are heavily allocated to the U.S. equities as they have ever been. I believe that most people panic as witnessed by the blue line. Sharing this next chart with you to nail home the point.
Average Equity Allocation Percentage vs Subsequent Rolling 10-Year Total Returns
The average investor equity allocation as of the latest data (12-31-25) is 55.1%. That is higher than any reading dating back to 1951.
The orange line plots the actual 10-Year rolling returns. You can see it stopped 10 years ago, since that is the last known data point.
The key point here is the high correlation between high equity allocation percentage to low subsequent 10-year returns and low equity allocation percentage to high subsequent 10-year returns.
Think about it this way. When investors are fully invested, they have less money available to buy stocks. At some point, bond yields may be high enough to pull money out of stocks and into bonds.
Source: NDR, CMG annontations
* No guarantees; all investing involves risk. Views are subject to change. TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
As always, this is not investment advice. For discussion purposes only. Reach out to us if you have any questions.
Views are subject to change. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. See important CMG disclosures below.
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Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only.
Trade Signals: April 9, 2026 Update
Trade Signals - subscribers only
The Indicators Dashboard - Stocks, Investor Sentiment, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, and Gold
Valuations and Subsequent 10-year Returns
Supporting Charts with Explanations
About Trade Signals - Trade Signals is a paid subscription service that posts the daily, weekly, and monthly trends in the markets (and more). Free for CMG clients. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. For discussion purposes only.
“Extreme patience combined with extreme decisiveness. You may call that our investment process. Yes, it’s that simple.” – Charlie Munger
TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only.
Personal Note: The Masters
The famous 12th hole at Augusta National
The Masters always feels like a time to pause and reflect.
I lost my father in 2011. He was an avid golfer and skier—the one who got me started in both at a young age. Those early days together shaped more than I probably understood at the time.
After he passed, I was fortunate to be invited to play Augusta National. That trip led to several meaningful moments… none more special than finding a way to honor him.
We were each given some of his ashes to place somewhere special. The winter before Augusta, I was with my kids at Snowbird. Standing at the top of the mountain, at around 11,000 feet, we said a prayer and released some of his ashes. Then we skied down his favorite run.
Later that year, when I told my sister Amy I’d be playing Augusta, she sent me the ashes she had been holding. “Can you place them somewhere on the course?” she asked.
“I know just the spot,” I told her.
Steve and Pop just behind the 12th Tee Box (they cover it on practice round days)
Growing up, we watched the Masters together every year—me and my siblings on the floor, propped up on pillows, Dad on the couch. It was our tradition. Maybe it is in your home, too.
Last Tuesday, I had the chance to walk a practice round. I made my way to the 12th tee, paused for a moment, and said a quiet thank you. I felt him there. That meant a lot.
I’m writing this from 30,000 feet on my way to Salt Lake City. A short drive and I’ll be in Snowbird. Three of my six kids are joining me. We’ll head back to that same spot, say a prayer, send him our love… and then ski down his favorite run.
The first run is always for Pop.
Here are a few more pictures…
Mike, Joe, Steve and Terry 10’th Hole Mike, Steve and Joe
A few days of skiing are ahead. Conditions are actually doable with some snow on Monday and Tuesday. Fingers crossed.
Family office meetings in Austin are scheduled for later this month.
Thanks for spending time with me each week. Best to you and yours!
Kind regards,
Steve
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Stephen B. Blumenthal
Executive Chairman & CIO
CMG Capital Management Group, Inc.
75 Valley Stream Parkway, Suite 201,
Malvern, PA 19355
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Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management. Author of Forbes Book: On My Radar, Navigating Stock Market Cycles.
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This document is prepared by CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. (“CMG”) and is circulated for informational and educational purposes only. There is no consideration given to the specific investment needs, objectives, or tolerances of any of the recipients. Additionally, CMG’s actual investment positions may, and often will, vary from its conclusions discussed herein based on any number of factors, such as client investment restrictions, portfolio rebalancing, and transaction costs, among others. Recipients should consult their own advisors, including tax advisors, before making any investment decision. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned. This material does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors which are necessary considerations before making any investment decision. Investors should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, where appropriate, seek professional advice, including legal, tax, accounting, investment, or other advice. The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
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