On My Radar - Gold and The Game of Thrones
August 8, 2025
By Steve Blumenthal
“U.S. hits 1 kilo gold bars with tariffs in blow to refining hub Switzerland.”
— Financial Times
I loved the Game of Thrones series. It took a few episodes to hook me. A few weeks ago, while in NYC, one of the episodes was on. It was late, but once again, I was pulled in. I couldn’t help but think of the current ‘Game of Thrones’ we are experiencing today.
China and the BRICS vs. the U.S. global hegemon. Trump is pressuring India to halt the buying of Russian oil. In response, Modi and Xi scheduled a meeting on August 31 in China. The list is long, the players tough, the issues many: Putin, Ukraine, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Middle East, Mexico, Canada, Japan, the EU, tariffs, global trade, weak Treasury auctions, king dollar, strategic metals, commodities, gold, and more.
On the latest episode of today’s modern “Game of Thrones:” 'Switzerland Refuses to Bend the Knee.’
Agree or disagree, like it or not, a real-life drama is happening, ongoing, and has important implications. This week, I touch on what this means in terms of gold; Switzerland is the world’s largest gold refining hub and provides a substantial share of the physical gold that underpins COMEX futures flows.
EndGame Macro summed it up: “The longer game may be less about tariffs for revenue and more about weaponizing the gold market, creating a controlled squeeze in the very bar formats that drive global futures pricing. It pressures the Swiss refining system, reasserts New York as the central arena for price discovery, and ensures that if gold is going to play a larger role in the future global monetary system, it will do so on U.S. terms. In a year when gold is already up on macroeconomic concerns, a politically engineered choke point like this can actively shift where and how the world’s benchmark gold price is set.”
Strategic maneuvering as established powers face the collapse of their debt-based and fiat currency monetary systems. In this story, gold is an asset. Are we on the pathway to what I believe is an inevitable shift back to some form of gold-backed currency? And, more broadly, may include other base metals, commodities, and Bitcoin. I think so. Let’s keep our eye on the 10-year Treasury yield, the dollar, oil, and gold. Game of Thrones-like stuff, indeed.
Coffee, yes; chair optional. This week’s piece is a quick read.
On My Radar:
Switzerland - It’s About Gold
Trade Signals: Update - August 8, 2025
Personal Note: Blue Ridge Mountains
OMR is for informational and educational purposes only. No consideration is given to your specific investment needs, objectives, or tolerances.
Please see the Important Disclosures at the bottom of this page. Reminder: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. My views may change at any time. The information is for discussion and educational purposes only.
If you like what you are reading, you can subscribe for free.
Switzerland - It’s About Gold
This 39% tariff on 1 kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars from Switzerland is a calculated move with immediate market consequences. The July 31 U.S. Customs ruling reclassified these bars into the exact formats COMEX accepts for delivery into a tariffed category; critical because Switzerland is the world’s largest gold refining hub, and a substantial share of the physical gold that underpins COMEX futures flows from there.
Within hours of the news, premiums for New York gold futures jumped above the spot price, signaling that deliverable supply into the U.S. market had abruptly tightened. Swiss refiners have already slowed or halted shipments, further compounding the squeeze. At its core, this is about leverage and strategic positioning. The U.S. is applying pressure on Switzerland while giving domestic refiners a direct pricing advantage in kilo and 100-ounce formats. That could lock in a higher New York futures premium even if global spot prices hold steady.
By effectively capping imports of these bar types, the move raises the stakes for COMEX short sellers, whose ability to source bars for delivery just got more complicated. Alternative routes such as shipping 400 ounce bars to London for recasting in the U.S., or rerouting through non-Swiss refineries will take time, limiting throughput in the interim.
The longer game may be less about tariffs for revenue and more about weaponizing the gold market, creating a controlled squeeze in the very bar formats that drive global futures pricing. It pressures the Swiss refining system, reasserts New York as the central arena for price discovery, and ensures that if gold is going to play a larger role in the future global monetary system, it will do so on U.S. terms.
In a year when gold is already up on macroeconomic concerns, a politically engineered choke point like this can actively shift where and how the world’s benchmark gold price is set. Source
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. See CMG Disclosures at the bottom of this page.
Trade Signals: Update - August 7, 2025
“Stay on top of the current market trends with Trade Signals.”
“Extreme patience combined with extreme decisiveness. You may call that our investment process. Yes, it’s that simple.”
– Charlie Munger
Trade Signals basics:
Trade Signals basics: The Market Commentary section summarizes notable changes in the core key indicators: Investor sentiment, market breadth, stocks, treasury yields, the dollar, and gold. The Dashboard of Indicators provides a detailed view of all Trade Signals indicators.
Market Commentary - The Real Cost of Tariffs:
Good friend Peter Boockvar was a podcast guest this week. Sharing the following with permission. He covered a lot. If you have some time, it is worth listening. From Peter — “the recent BLS data drama, signs of economic fragility, where growth is (and isn’t) showing up, earnings, tariffs, energy and oil dynamics, China’s rare earth leverage, the recent test of the “buy the dip” mindset, the state of the AI trade, and more.”
Notable Changes This Week:
The Weekly MACD for the S&P 500 Index remains bullish. The Daily MACD remains bearish, indicating initial weakness.
It was a good bull signal for the direction of interest rates as yields have declined from 4.44% to 4.23%. The Weekly MACD for the 10-year Treasury Yield remains bullish, signaling lower interest rates.
The Weekly MACD for the Dollar remains bullish.
The Weekly MACD for Gold remains bearish, yet Gold is once again testing its recent high due to the tariff news. We remain long-term bullish on gold.
Key Macro Indicators - Investor Sentiment, Market Breadth, The S&P 500 Index (Stocks), The 10-year Treasury Yield (Bonds), and the Dollar:
About Trade Signals
Trade Signals is a paid subscription service that posts the daily, weekly, and monthly trends in the markets (and more). Free for CMG clients.
TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only.
Personal Note: Blue Ridge Mountains
“Almost heaven, West Virginia
Blue Ridge Mountains, Shenandoah River
Life is old there, older than the trees
Younger than the mountains, growin' like a breeze
Take me home, country roads.”
- John Denver "Take Me Home, Country Roads."
If you have yet to watch The Game of Thrones, the story and acting are excellent. The major Houses are the most prominent noble families, typically ruling over large regions of Westeros or holding significant influence. There are Seven Kingdoms with 9 Great Houses - each ruling a major region: House Stark – Lords of the North, based in Winterfell. House Lannister – Lords of the Westerlands, based in Casterly Rock. House Baratheon – Lords of the Stormlands, based in Storm’s End (and the royal house through King Robert Baratheon). House Targaryen – Formerly rulers of the Seven Kingdoms, now in exile (Daenerys and Viserys).
We sure do seem to be in a major Game of Thrones-like geopolitical state today. Pressure is building as is the pace towards what Bessent calls “a global grand reordering.” We’ll map this together in real time.
Blue Ridge Mountains
Susan and drove from Philadelphia through Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, Tennessee (for just a few miles), and Virginia again on our way to Asheville, NC. Beautiful is an understatement.
We toured the Biltmore Estate, built by George Washington Vanderbilt in 1895 (massive, impressive), played some golf, ate well, and enjoyed visiting Susan’s mother. Oh, and we enjoyed a cold IPA at the Sierra Nevada Brewery.
The breadth and beauty of the Blue Ridge Mountains and Shenandoah Valley blew us away. They are part of the larger Appalachian Mountain range and run through several U.S. states: Virginia, North Carolina, West Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina (a small portion), Maryland, and Pennsylvania.
“Country roads, take me home
To the place I belong
West Virginia, mountain mama
Take me home, country roads.”
I hope August finds you with some downtime, a beach, a lake, or some time on a country road.
Have a wonderful week!
With kind regards,
Steve
You can share this letter on X by clicking here.
You can share this letter on LinkedIn by clicking here.
Subscribe to OMR for free by clicking the photo.
Stephen B. Blumenthal
Executive Chairman & CIO
CMG Capital Management Group, Inc.
75 Valley Stream Parkway, Suite 201, Malvern, PA 19355
Private Wealth Client Website
CMG Customer Relationship Summary (Form CRS)
Metric-Financial, LLC Customer Relationship Summary (Form CRS)
Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management. Author of Forbes Book: On My Radar, Navigating Stock Market Cycles.
Follow Steve on X @SBlumenthalCMG and LinkedIn.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This document is prepared by CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. (“CMG”) and is circulated for informational and educational purposes only. There is no consideration given to the specific investment needs, objectives, or tolerances of any of the recipients. Additionally, CMG’s actual investment positions may, and often will, vary from its conclusions discussed herein based on any number of factors, such as client investment restrictions, portfolio rebalancing, and transaction costs, among others. Recipients should consult their own advisors, including tax advisors, before making any investment decision. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned. This material does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors which are necessary considerations before making any investment decision. Investors should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, where appropriate, seek professional advice, including legal, tax, accounting, investment, or other advice. The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
Investing involves risk.
This letter may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and future performance of the various investment markets, indices, and investments. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; “believe,” anticipate,” “planned,” “potential,” and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular market, index, investment, or investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to, general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in legislation or regulation, Federal Reserve policy, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory, and technological factors affecting markets, indices, investments, investment strategy and portfolio positioning that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involve a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements or examples. All statements made herein speak only as of the date that they were made. Investing is inherently risky and all investing involves the potential risk of loss.
Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by CMG), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CMG. Please remember to contact CMG, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. CMG is neither a law firm, nor a certified public accounting firm, and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice.
No portion of the content should be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. References to specific securities, investment programs or funds are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.
This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses realized or unrealized, by any CMG client from any specific funds or securities. Please note: In the event that CMG references performance results for an actual CMG portfolio, the results are reported net of advisory fees and inclusive of dividends. The performance referenced is that as determined and/or provided directly by the referenced funds and/or publishers, has not been independently verified, and does not reflect the performance of any specific CMG client. CMG clients may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. See in links provided citing limitations of hypothetical back-tested information. Past performance cannot predict or guarantee future performance. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please talk to your advisor.
Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its accuracy. This document is general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purposes.
In a rising interest rate environment, the value of fixed-income securities generally declines, and conversely, in a falling interest rate environment, the value of fixed-income securities generally increases. High-yield securities may be subject to heightened market, interest rate, or credit risk and should not be purchased solely because of the stated yield. Ratings are measured on a scale that ranges from AAA or Aaa (highest) to D or C (lowest). Investment-grade investments are those rated from highest down to BBB- or Baa3.
NOT FDIC INSURED. MAY LOSE VALUE. NO BANK GUARANTEE.
Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
In the event that there has been a change in an individual’s investment objective or financial situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with his/her investment professional.
Written Disclosure Statement. CMG is an SEC-registered investment adviser located in Malvern, Pennsylvania. Stephen B. Blumenthal is CMG’s founder and CEO. Please note: The above views are those of CMG and its CEO, Stephen Blumenthal, and do not reflect those of any sub-advisor that CMG may engage to manage any CMG strategy, or exclusively determines any internal strategy employed by CMG. A copy of CMG’s current written disclosure statement discussing advisory services and fees is available upon request or via CMG’s internet web site at www.cmgwealth.com/disclosures. CMG is committed to protecting your personal information. Click here to review CMG’s privacy policies.
