On My Radar: The Tumult and the Shouting
January 23, 2026
By Steve Blumenthal
“When the One Great Scorer comes to write against your name, He writes not that you won or lost but how you played the game.”
- Grantland Rice, 1908 poem Alumnus Football
I wrote last week, “Friedman frames Greenland not as a real estate curiosity, but as a strategic outpost in a changing Arctic world. His question is blunt: how far is the U.S. willing to push its allies when core strategic interests are at stake? His answer: probably farther than many in Europe would like.” Source: GeopoliticalFutures
We witnessed 90 minutes of “probably farther” in Davos this week. Tensions have eased somewhat since the President’s global thrashing.
Ray Dalio summarized it this way: “The changing monetary order and the changing geopolitical order clearly came together at Davos and especially at the moment of President Trump's speech. President Trump's threats to impose trade war punishments and to use military war were red lines for European leaders that would have led them to respond with capital war actions on purchases of US assets, especially debt assets, and trade war tariff retaliation. President Trump's speech was a stepping back from crossing that red line.”
Viewing the bigger picture, Ray argues, “It's now happening. The existing fiat monetary order, the domestic political order, and the international geopolitical order are all breaking down, so we are at the brink of wars. It all is happening because of the Big Cycle that is driven by the five big forces I've described repeatedly and laid out in detail in my book and Youtube video titled Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order.”
Think about the massive buildup of debt in the monetary system, like the buildup of plaque in a human’s pulmonary system. Cut back, eat better, exercise: fix it, or die.
Grab that coffee, and find your favorite chair. More from Dalio below, along with my brief bullet point notes. My good friend Ed D’Agostino from Mauldin Economics allowed me to share his recent discussion with George Friedman. And I conclude this week’s OMR with what I hope you find to be a wonderful Grantland Rice-like story. Rice was the author of a famous book titled The Tumult and the Shouting.
Given today’s geopolitical challenges, tumult and shouting seem painfully apropos. But let’s go where the legendary sports writer and poet might go, and talk about the Indiana Hoosiers. What a game! I hope you enjoy the short story I wrote in the personal section below.
On My Radar: The Tumult and the Shouting
The Great Geopolitical Re-Anchoring: US, China, and the Fall of Russia
Personal Note: Grantland Rice, Arizona, and Snow
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Dealing with The Changing World Order, Ray Dalio
Watch Dalio’s 6-minute interview about Davos at the link below.
Following are my quick bullet point notes: Key insights on capital war, monetary policy, and the shifting global economic landscape
The Major Forces (Global Pressures) - Ray introduced the 5 major forces: money/debt, internal conflict, external conflict, acts of nature, and technology. He emphasized how markets and capital flows must be viewed within these larger forces, which impact trade, monetary policies, and overall economic stability.
Capital War vs. Trade War - Ray discussed the growing unease about a “capital war” rather than just a trade war. Think in terms of countries withdrawing capital from U.S. stocks and bonds. And/or vice versa. Ray spoke about the significance of capital imbalances, notably how shifts in bond holdings and broader asset ownership can transform global financial relationships. He stressed that what we see as a trade imbalance on the surface also means a deeper capital imbalance in the background. Watch interest rates, watch the dollar, and other currencies. And gold.
President Trump’s Speech and Greenland - He highlighted the importance of the speech, noting a “red line” on military moves, specifically regarding Greenland. He noted that if the U.S. ever escalated militarily in that region, it could accelerate de-dollarization among countries worried about sanctions or currency exposure. Although the transcript mentioned Greenland in a speculative manner, Ray urged attention to any geopolitical triggers that could shift capital flows and reserve currency dynamics.
De-dollarization and Currency Diversification - A major concern centered on countries diversifying away from the U.S. dollar. Ray noted that central banks, among others, are increasingly turning to gold, which rose 67% last year. He suggested that this rapid growth indicates intensified hedging against fiat currencies, including not just the dollar but also the euro.
Historical Parallels in the Monetary System - Ray reflected on past breakdowns in monetary systems, specifically noting 1944 (Bretton Woods), 1971 (end of gold-backed dollar to a fiat-backed dollar), 2008 (interest rates hitting zero and the advent of quantitative easing), and 2020 (Covid-19 monetary response - further QE). He tied these points to the ongoing weakness in the current fiat-based system, emphasizing how repeated debt monetization episodes reduce the long-term value of money.
Debt, Money, and Store of Wealth - Historically, countries do not like holding each other’s debt during heightened tensions or wartime due to the risk of sanctions and currency debasement. This leads them to accumulate alternative store-of-value assets, notably gold, whenever fiat money is aggressively printed.
Longer-Term Debt Cycle Concerns - He discussed the dangers of rising debt and debt service payments relative to income. Excessive bond supply with insufficient demand could spark problems in fixed-income markets. The transcript underscored how crucial it is to watch when bondholders begin to question the returns they receive.
Potential for ‘Melt-Up’ vs. ‘Meltdown’ - Rather than an outright market meltdown, a “melt-up” scenario can occur if devaluations push investors into equities or other assets. He emphasized the importance of capital supply and demand, stressing that shifts in global confidence and policymaking could dramatically alter bond and currency markets.
Implications for Dollar Demand - If military lines are crossed or global trust erodes, foreign holders of U.S. assets might sharply reduce their holdings. This scenario would dramatically affect the dollar’s status as a reserve currency and alter global demand for U.S. debt and dollar-denominated assets.
Source: Bloomberg, YouTube
Also worth a review… Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order:
Source: Bloomberg, YouTube
Feeling hopeless?
The reality is that from an investment perspective, there is much you can do. It’s a question of where you point your needle. What to lean into and what to avoid. Happy to discuss further one-on-one.
Opinions are subject to change. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. See important CMG disclosures below.
The Great Geopolitical Re-Anchoring: US, China, and the Fall of Russia | George Friedman and Ed D’Agostino
“I sat down with George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures to discuss his latest annual forecast, and what a conversation it turned out to be. George walks us through what he calls the “re-anchoring” of the world order. The Cold War didn’t truly end with the fall of the Soviet Union—it ended in Ukraine, where Russia proved it couldn't even take its neighbor. Now the US-China relationship has replaced the US-Russia dynamic as the world’s primary anchor, creating a fundamentally different situation. We dig into the economic challenges both countries face, the future of NATO, and yes—I had to ask George about Greenland. George also shares his thoughts on what comes after Trump, the demographic crisis facing the developed world, and why Russia’s position has become increasingly precarious. As many of you know, George Friedman is a renowned geopolitical strategist, best-selling author, and the founder of Geopolitical Futures.” Wrote Ed.
Timestamps:
0:00 – Introduction
1:03 – The world is becoming re-anchored
3:40 – US-China: A more intimate relationship
9:08 – One-quarter of the world’s economy
10:25 – What about Europe?
12:38 – Is NATO obsolete at this point?
14:38 – The “why” behind Greenland
20:03 – The Donroe Doctrine
22:04 – Middle of the storm
28:05 – Spooky entanglement
29:45 – What’s next for Russia?
Mauldin Economics, YouTube, Jan 23, 2026 Global Macro Update
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Personal Note: Grantland Rice, Arizona, and Snow
One Christmas long ago, Mom gave me a book I’d read each night before bed - The Tumult and the Shouting by Grantland Rice.
Rice wrote about sports. Not as entertainment alone, but as a mirror for life. He had a gift for seeing past the scoreboard and into the character of the people playing the game. His most famous line, quoted above, still resonates today: “… how you played the game.” That thought came rushing back to me while watching Indiana’s late-game drive this weekend.
The above poem sits on my desk and has for many years. A forever message from Mom to me.
Wanting to give you a feel for this legendary writer, I took a shot at channelling my inner Grantland Rice. I wrote the draft, then asked ChatGPT to improve upon it. Here you go: “The winning drive.”:
“And so, when the hour grew late, and the shadows stretched long across the field, Indiana summoned its finest moment. There was no thunder in the huddle, no bravado in the eyes — only resolve. Down the field they moved, not in haste but with purpose, each snap a quiet promise kept. In that final moment, the line held as if anchored by will alone, the quarterback slipped through the crease, lowered his shoulder, and in one final, desperate stretch extended the ball toward destiny. The touchdown came not as a surprise, but as a reward, earned the old-fashioned way: through preparation, poise, and the refusal to yield. And in that instant, the game was decided not by chance, but by character.”
That brings back good memories. Thank you, Mom. You are dearly missed.
A heartfelt congratulations to the Indiana Hoosiers. That was a game for the ages.
A once-in-a-decade snowstorm is heading to the East Coast on Sunday. And, impacting much of the country en route. I hope you are safe and warm.
I'm flying to Arizona for a conference, and the departure is questionable due to the storm. Meetings on Sunday and Monday, with the conference running through Wednesday. One of our private equity investments will be presenting. The conference is hosted by a financial services technology firm called Advyzon. We are looking for the best technology for our multi-family office's back-office and client experience. Post-conference, the plan was to take a short flight to Utah or Wyoming for a few days of skiing. 0” of new snow has put a pivot in my plans. I’ll be heading home. The right thing to do is to help Susan dig out. I seek deep powder snow another day. If you are in the North East, I hope you are able to enjoy what looks to be epic skiing conditions.
Build a fire, grab an old Grantland Rice book, and take yourself back to a wonderful place in time.
The Tumult and the Shouting. Sadly, it rhymes with our current state.
Here’s a toast to better days! Ever forward!
Warm regards,
Steve
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Stephen B. Blumenthal
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Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management. Author of Forbes Book: On My Radar, Navigating Stock Market Cycles.
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