On My Radar: U.S. vs. China - Energy, Control, and the Global Order
May 15, 2026
By Steve Blumenthal
"China believes democracy should not exist. America is the obstacle, remove America, and the path is clear. It is stated explicitly: upend America economically, without firing a shot. The goal is control of the world, a world where America cannot fight back because it no longer has the industrial power to do so. That is why this is a national security issue."
— Ram Charan, author of China’s 90% Model, Mauldin Economics SIC2026
In August 2019, I pulled into the Bangor, Maine, airport. Jonathan Ward, the author of China’s Vision of Victory, stepped into my car. We were en route to the annual Camp Kotok fishing event, a gathering of Fed officials and chief economists, institutional money managers, advisors, and family offices. By the time we arrived at Leen’s Lodge, I was both educated and stunned.
This was a very big week. Perhaps no issue is bigger than the relationship between China and the U.S. After reading today’s missive, I hope you gain a better understanding of the players in the arena and the game at play. Let’s first race back to 2019.
What is Camp Kotok? Each summer, legendary investor David Kotok hosts “Camp Kotok” in rural Maine, an invitation-only gathering that brings together economists, market strategists, fund managers, journalists, academics, and policymakers for several days of fishing, hiking, informal debate, and big-picture thinking.
Fishing friend Dave Nadig, ETF.com’s managing director, explained Camp Kotok this way:
“Each year I attend an event in the Maine woods called, alternatively, “Camp Kotok” or the “Shadow Fed.” The former sounds frivolous. The latter sounds nefarious. Neither is particularly accurate.
The attendees at Camp Kotok are smart. Like, really, scary smart. While there are strict rules about how and what gets reported—which includes who attends—the combined résumé includes economists from governments and S&P 500 companies, CIOs, portfolio managers, politicians, best-selling authors and a handful of overwhelmed journalists.
It’s also surprisingly diverse for a finance-focused gathering - diverse politically, ethnographically, geographically. Walking into the dining hall on a Friday afternoon creates a near lethal sense of impostor syndrome. The only survival strategy is to ask questions and listen really hard to the answers.”
I wrote about the 2019 meeting in a note titled, On My Radar: Camp Kotok Notes on China and MMT. What stood out to me as I read that letter this week was this: “We are playing small ball; they are playing long ball.”
“I have two big takeaways from camp to share with you today. First, we need to rethink how we engage with China. I spent an outstanding two hours in the car with a new friend, Jonathan Ward, author of China’s Vision of Victory. On the way to Grand Lake Stream after landing in Bangor, Maine, Jonathan took me to school. Yikes – we must wake up. We are playing small ball; they are playing long ball. Second, dare I say, Modern Monetary Theory is coming. Views were shared and stress tested.” - OMR/Blumenthal August 2019
And here we are, nearly 7 years later. We are awake, and “long ball,” China’s 90% Model, is currently winning.
Grab your coffee and find your favorite chair. Dr. Charam lays out the current state and emphasizes that it is not too late for the U.S. and global democracies. What will the world look like in five years? Read on…
You can view the Mauldin Economics 2026SIC agenda and subscribe to view the recordings here. (Please know, I am not compensated in any way. Just a big fan.)
On My Radar:
Personal Note: PGA Championship
OMR is for informational and educational purposes only. No consideration is given to your specific investment needs, objectives, or tolerances.
Please see the Important Disclosures at the bottom of this page. Reminder: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. My views may change at any time. The information is for discussion and educational purposes only.
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China’s Tightrope: Energy, Control, and the Global Order
Masterfully chorographed/positioned to present on the final day of the Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference (Wednesday, May 13, 2026), Dr. Ram Charan was interviewed by Lyric Hughes Hale. How perfectly aligned with the Trump-Xi meeting in China this week.
Before we dive in, let’s first take a look at the bios.
Ram Charan earned an engineering degree in India, then took a job in Australia. He earned an MBA and a doctorate degree from Harvard Business School, where he graduated with high distinction and was a Baker Scholar, and served on the faculties of Harvard Business School and Northwestern University before pursuing consulting full-time. Since 1998, Charan has authored more than 30 books.
Lyric Hughes Hale is the Director of Research at Hale Strategic. She focuses primarily on China and Asia, with a special emphasis on economics, science & technology, and the media. She also serves as editor-in-chief of EconVue, which publishes a newsletter, The Hale China Report. She hosts The Hale Report, a podcast series on global economics.
Ok, let’s go. Lights on. I mean, really on!
Following are my notes - No wasted moves… direct and to the point (bullet point format):
Key Takeaways
The 90% Model - China's Core Strategy
Dr. Charan's central thesis is that China is not competing industry by industry; it is building overwhelming capacity in strategic sectors to turn business and economic dependency into geopolitical leverage.
Xi Jinping selected 10 industries per presidential term, now 30 in total, and mandated that Chinese companies build capacity equal to 90% of estimated world demand in each.
As an example: Solar panels. China now commands ~97% global market share. No competitor can survive on price. The U.S. solar industry, once the world leader, is gone.
Electric vehicles: China has built ~95% of the world's EV capacity. Europe's Volkswagen, once dominant, is being systematically displaced.
The mechanism is three-part: (1) hyperscale production and drive marginal costs to near zero, (2) companies are directed to grab market share even at a loss, (3) the RMB was devalued ~25%, making Chinese goods less expensive for U.S. consumers (and other countries) to buy (further cost advantages). (Source cited: Goldman Sachs).
The Trade Surplus Machine
China recorded a $1.25 trillion trade surplus last year. Charan projects $1.8 trillion this year.
That hard currency, dollars, yen, euros, funds technology acquisition, military hardware, and shipbuilding.
Charan noted that China currently holds $7.4 trillion in reserves plus 250+ tons of gold and is growing. This is the war chest.
SB here: Let me try to explain this in simple terms:
When a country sells more to the world than it buys from the world, it runs a trade surplus. The difference comes back home as cash.
Think of it like a small business. If your shop sells $1.8 million worth of goods to customers but only spends $1 million buying supplies, you pocket $800,000. That money is yours to invest, save, or use however you want.
China is that shop example on a massive scale. The rest of the world (especially the U.S.) keeps buying Chinese goods, and the difference flows back to Beijing as hard currency: dollars, euros, yen. Last year that "profit" was $1.25 trillion. Charan projects $1.8 trillion this year.
That cash pile doesn't sit idle. China uses it to buy technology companies, build a navy, fund military hardware, and subsidize the next round of industries it wants to dominate. It's a self-reinforcing cycle; surplus funds the strategy that generates more surplus.
The U.S., by contrast, runs a trade deficit; we buy more than we sell. That means dollars flow out of the country continuously. We're the customer, not the shop owner. The customer is ultimately dependent on the shop.
That's the core of Charan's concern in plain English: China has structured the global economy so that it is permanently the seller and everyone else is permanently the buyer. And that creates its geopolitical leverage. Sellers accumulate wealth and power. Buyers accumulate dependency. The 90% Model gameplan is working for China.
Ok, back to the notes.
China’s Strategy Is Not a Secret
Charan was emphatic: none of this is hidden. It was formulated in Mandarin under President Hu (post-Tiananmen) and has been stated and restated: upend America's economic power without firing a shot, create a multipolar world, and eliminate the CCP's vulnerability to Western-style democracy movements.
The goal is not Taiwan. Xi's stated long-term goal is to diminish American economic and industrial power globally. Taiwan, in Charan's view, will come eventually on its own. A physical attack is not the plan.
What American CEOs Are Missing
U.S. companies operating in China are not competing with Chinese companies. They are competing with the President of China, who makes decisions personally and directs industry from the top down.
The pattern is clear and predictable: market share declines, unit costs rise, losses mount, and eventually the company is forced out, after transferring technology, brand knowledge, and training to Chinese workers.
Most CEOs don't see it until their own industry is hit. Stock markets are up. Consumers get cheap, high-quality goods. The pain lands in the Midwest, bankruptcies, factory closures, and job losses. All of this is largely unreported.
Charan has told multiple CEOs, "I can show you the calculation. In approximately X years, your time in China is up. Get your money out."
Rare Earths & Choke Points
Rare earths are a deliberate choke point. It is a relatively small market but embedded in every critical supply chain: defense, EVs, electronics, and magnets.
China is now restricting magnet exports and blocking technical personnel from traveling overseas.
Charan's note of optimism: Barbara Humpton (former Siemens CEO, now reporting to the Treasury) is leading a U.S. effort to acquire and build rare-earth processing capacity. Outside investors are funding it. He believes it is moving.
His broader point is that the knowledge and talent to rebuild exist. The engineers who built China's industries are alive, available, and patriotic.
A few quick Blumenthal comments for you to better understand the importance/need:
* China controls roughly 69% of global rare earth mining and approximately 90% of global processing capacity, which aligns precisely with Charan's broader 90% model thesis. Persistence Market Research
* And the strategic picture is intensifying fast. In February 2026, the U.S. launched "Project Vault." A $12 billion plan to stockpile critical minerals, including rare earths, likened to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with support from GM and Boeing. Transparency Market Research
* After doing some digging, my best guess is the market size is roughly $4–14 billion, depending on the measure used (which metals are included). While this is relatively small compared to oil or semiconductors, the leverage it provides China is wildly disproportionate to its dollar size. The issue is the world’s dependency. And the world is dependent!
* Rare earth elements have unique magnetic, luminescent, and electrochemical properties that simply cannot be replicated by other materials. Nature gave them a specific atomic structure that makes them extraordinarily useful for applications requiring powerful magnetic fields in a tiny space, precise light emission, or efficient energy conversion.
Permanent magnets. This is the big one. Neodymium (a rare earth) makes the strongest permanent magnets known to science. Those magnets are inside every EV motor, every wind turbine generator, every hard drive, every smartphone speaker, every military guidance system, and every pair of earbuds you own. There is currently no substitute that performs as well at scale.
Defense systems. F-35 fighters, Tomahawk missiles, radar systems, sonar, night-vision equipment. The U.S. military is deeply dependent on rare earths.
Consumer electronics. The screen you're reading this on uses rare earths (europium, terbium) for color display. Your phone's vibration motor uses them. Your camera autofocus uses them.
Clean energy. Wind turbines require enormous amounts of rare-earth magnets. The global energy transition is essentially a rare earth demand story.
The bottom line in plain English: The modern economy (clean energy, defense, consumer electronics, EVs) runs on powerful miniaturized magnets. The best magnets require rare earths. China processes 90% of the world's rare earths.
That's the chokehold. It's not that rare earths are rare in the ground; they're actually fairly abundant. It's that the infrastructure to turn ore into usable material exists almost entirely in one country that has demonstrated a willingness to use that as a weapon.
Of course, the U.S. has much leverage as well. I hope this gives you a better understanding of the enormity of the issue at play. Ok, back to my Dr. Ram Charan conference notes.
The U.S. Response - What's Required
Charan says we need to fight industrial policy with industrial policy. Pick the industries. Build critical mass. Block Chinese inputs to prevent the ascent of the 90% model.
Alliance arithmetic: U.S. + Japan + South Korea + Australia + Europe + UK equates to a $70 trillion economy.
An alliance that can out-invest and out-build China if we strategically work together with purpose.
He said, Europe and Japan will join not out of solidarity but necessity because their economies are hurting more than America's.
Charan's specific recommendation: create a cabinet-level Department of Manufacturing and Technology to coordinate the industrial build-out. He believes Trump has heard this idea.
That ends my bullet point notes.
This Week's Beijing Summit - What We Now Know
Trump has left Beijing. The two-day summit is over.
Here's the bottom line: The tone was warm, the substance was thin.
There was a clear display of warmth and respect. Trump praised China as a beautiful place and called Xi a great leader. Xi welcomed Trump with military honors, flag-waving children, a gift of rose seeds, and a toast to his health. Trump dubbed the relationship the "G-2," the two great countries, and posted a photo of himself walking with Xi, calling him "one of the World's Great Leaders." Bloomberg
The president cited "fantastic" trade deals and said "a lot of different problems" were settled, though no major agreements or breakthroughs were announced before he departed Beijing. NBC News
From a U.S. perspective, there was no grand breakthrough, but the meeting was seen as stabilizing relations, and there was a clear effort to prevent the superpower rivalry from spiraling further out of control. euronews
What Was Actually Agreed
Boeing: The only major deal announced was a Chinese commitment to order roughly 200 Boeing jets. The first significant order since Trump's 2017 Beijing trip, when China agreed to buy 300 planes before relations soured. euronews
Agriculture: Both sides agreed in principle to Chinese purchases of U.S. farm goods - corn and soybeans reportedly part of the discussions.
AI Chips: Not a single Nvidia H200 chip has shipped to any of the ten approved Chinese buyers. A proposed bilateral AI governance framework produced no signed document. Chip export controls were not formally discussed at the bilateral meeting itself, per U.S. Trade Representative Greer. Tech Times
Worth adding that the H200 holdup is a two-way stall, not just a U.S. controls issue. Beijing is actively discouraging its own companies from buying, preferring that they use Huawei's domestic chips instead. That's actually a more telling detail; China is willing to forgo advanced AI chips to build domestic self-sufficiency. Seems to me that’s the 90% model in real time.
Rare Earths: Rare earth exports from China are still running roughly 50% below pre-restriction levels. No resolution was reached. Negotiations will likely continue well into the summer and possibly back on the table if Xi visits the U.S. in September. Tech Times, CNBC
Taiwan: The Sharpest Moment
Xi warned Trump on Day 1 that mishandling China's claims on Taiwan could cause "clashes and even conflicts."
En route to Alaska after the summit, Trump said he has not made a decision on whether to proceed with an arms sale to Taiwan.
Secretary of State Rubio tried to downplay it, "We always make clear our position, and we move on," but the Chinese statement was pointed and deliberate. NBC News
On Iran:
The joint statement explicitly included China's support for opening the Strait of Hormuz, stating that there should never be a charge for transit through it.
Both leaders also agreed that Iran should never have nuclear weapons. Getting China on record as supporting the reopening of Hormuz is a meaningful diplomatic data point.
But no concrete Chinese commitment to actively pressure Tehran emerged. Words, not leverage. The distinction matters.
Trump concluded the summit largely where he began, receiving little help from his “friend” Xi Jinping in dealing with a messy war in Iran. Bloomberg, CNBC
As Charan said at the 2026SIC, China cannot deliver on Iran even if it wanted to.
Concluding thoughts:
I want to be clear about something before I close. What you've read today is not a political statement; it is not a right or a left thing, a pro-Trump or anti-Trump thing. I am fully aware that readers of OMR hold a wide range of views, and I respect your views. My only objective here is to help you see the global chessboard clearly: who the players are, what they want, and how the game is actually being played. None of that changes based on who sits in the Oval Office. The 90% model didn't begin with this administration, and it won't end with it. It is a 50-year Chinese strategy, clearly stated, methodically executed, and, as Dr. Charan laid out in granular, fact-based detail, it is working.
Understanding your adversary is not the same as fearing them. China's objectives, viewed from Beijing's perspective, are entirely rational. They emerged from a specific reading of history, post-Tiananmen, post-Cold War, and a deliberate decision to compete economically rather than militarily. Knowing that is not alarmist. It is simply the prerequisite for any serious conversation about investment risk, industrial policy, and where the world is heading.
Ram Charan's remarks at the 2026 SIC were among the clearest and most actionable I have heard on this subject and were, for me, a strong follow-on to the conversation Jonathan Ward and I had at Camp Kotok back in 2019. Ward saw it early. Charan sees it now with even greater urgency.
Xi sent Trump home with something in hand: Boeing jets, warm optics, face-saving rhetoric, while the structural issues (rare earths, chips, the 90% model) remain firmly in China's favor. Words were exchanged on Iran and Hormuz. No real leverage changed hands. Dr. Ram Charan called it almost exactly.
Markets may interpret the cordial tone as a resolution. It isn't. This is a tactical pause in a long economic war, and, as Dr. Charan made clear, the risk is still not priced into markets by most investors.
That said, there is reason for measured optimism. The U.S. is not standing still. Domestic rare earth processing is being funded. Semiconductor supply chains are being reshored. Allied industrial policy between Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Europe is slowly aligning. The $70 trillion democratic economy, if it acts with purpose, can out-invest, out-build, and defeat China over time.
But "over time" is the operative phrase. The 90% model took 30 years to build. Unwinding that dependency will not happen at a summit, through a trade truce, or during a presidential term.
Dr. Ward saw this coming years before most. The thesis hasn't changed - the urgency has grown.
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Trade Signals: May 15, 2026 Update
Market Commentary
Peter Boockvar's note is out this morning (May 15, 2026). I rarely miss a post. This one is spot on.
Peter makes an important point that markets are once again being forced to confront a reality he has been warning about for years: the global bond bear market matters. Long-term interest rates are rising across the developed world. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield is at a 29-year high, UK gilt yields are at an 18-year high, German bund yields are at a 15-year high, and U.S. Treasury yields continue to push higher, with the 10-year challenging 4.5% and the 30-year Treasury above 5%.
Why does this matter? He notes that interest rates are the foundation upon which nearly all asset prices are built. Higher rates pressure stock market valuations, raise borrowing costs, slow economic activity, and expose the growing strain of large government deficits and debt burdens. Inflation remains sticky globally, central banks are losing some control over the long end of the yield curve, and sovereign bonds — once viewed as safe havens — are increasingly becoming a source of funding stress.
Bottom line: The bond market is beginning to dictate monetary policy rather than central banks themselves. In this environment, long-term interest rates may be the most important macroeconomic variable investors need to watch.
A few charts before we get to today’s Dashboard.
S&P 500 Weekly MACD
Note the red arrow in the upper right-hand side signaling caution.
The weekly MACD trend is still bullish (bottom right)
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The Indicators Dashboard - Stocks, Investor Sentiment, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, and Gold
Valuations and Subsequent 10-year Returns
Supporting Charts with Explanations
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“Extreme patience combined with extreme decisiveness. You may call that our investment process. Yes, it’s that simple.” – Charlie Munger
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The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only.
Personal Note: PGA Championship
If you are a golf fan, tune in this weekend to the PGA Championship at Aronomik Golf Club. The course is located in suburban Philadelphia, just 12 minutes from my office. I’ve been fortunate to play there once or twice a year. It is stunning.
Aronimink's roots go back to December 1896, when a handful of cricketers led by Harrison Townsend laid out a few rudimentary golf holes at the corner of 52nd Street and Chester Avenue in Philadelphia - an outgrowth of the Belmont Cricket Club. The club formally incorporated as Aronimink Golf Club in 1900, moved twice in its early years, and eventually settled in Drexel Hill in 1913. In 1926, the club purchased 300 acres in Newtown Square and, on Memorial Day 1928, relocated to its current home, with the clubhouse designed by Charles Barton Keen and the course laid out by the legendary Donald Ross.
This week, Aronimink hosts the 2026 PGA Championship, its return to the biggest stage for the first time since Gary Player hoisted the Wanamaker Trophy there 64 years ago.
The weather looks to be perfect. I’ll be golfing at Stonewall tomorrow afternoon and will see if I can find my way to Aronimink on Sunday. As I’m about to hit the send button, the current leader is -5 under par. World number one, Scottie Scheffler, is currently 3 back at -2.
We had a wonderful time last Saturday watching Susan get inducted into the South Eastern PA Hall of Fame. She was surprised, honored, and humbled by the award.
Susan and Steve
And amongst the many collectibles placed at the back of the room, my heart was happy to see this picture of my late, great college coach, Walter Bahr.
All the best! Indeed.
Have a wonderful weekend. Stay fit, stay well, and happy, and maybe reach out and surprise an old coach, teacher, or friend with a warm phone call.
Steve
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Stephen B. Blumenthal
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Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management. Author of Forbes Book: On My Radar, Navigating Stock Market Cycles.
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