On My Radar - Tobin’s Q, Record High, and AI Humanoid Robots

Written By Steve Blumenthal
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October 3, 2025
By Steve Blumenthal

“Robotics isn’t about machines; it’s about creating companions that enhance human capabilities.”

– Raffaello D’Andrea, Swiss Engineer and Artist

The U.S. equity market is at a record high, valuations are at an all-time high, household ownership of equities is at a record high, and concentration in just a few names is also at an all-time high.

There are many indicators consistent with a bull market peak; however, the trend remains bullish.

Grab your coffee, find your favorite chair. You’ll find a few good charts and a fun short story about Rosie. Remember the cartoon show, The Jetsons? Rosie was their robot companion and housemaid. Quick trivia question: Do you remember the name of their dog? You’ll find it in the Personal Section. Let’s jump in.

On My Radar: 

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Tobin’s Q, Price-to-sales, Government Debt, Concentration, and a Proposed Stimulus Check

Tobin’s Q = (The Market Value of a Company’s Assets) ÷ (Replacement Cost of those Assets)

It’s mainly used to gauge whether firms, or markets overall, are overvalued or undervalued relative to their underlying assets.

With your first look at the following chart, zero in on the lower section (orange line) and note the secular bull market peaks in 1966 and 2000.

The green-shaded areas indicate the BULL secular (long-term) bull markets, and the white-shaded areas indicate the BEAR markets.

Several other data points:

  • I like how NDR shows the “Per Annum Returns” in both bull and bear periods (upper section).

  • Also, note that valuations were high at secular bull market peaks and low at the end of secular bear markets (in other words, bull market beginnings).

Source: NDR

2) Price-to-Sales

The highest reading dating back to 1954.

  • Note the “We are here” red arrow

  • Also, look at the “Divation From Long-Term Trend” data in the lower section. It argues relative to an upward sloping 1.9% gain per annum, we are not quite at all-time highs, but high regardless.

Source: NDR with CMG annotations

The following chart looks at the price-to-sales of the “Elite Eight” stocks. Take a look at the middle section, far right-hand side. Yikes!

Source: NDR

3) Government Debt

Up $1.7 trillion since the debt ceiling was raised (3 MONTHS AGO) !!!

Source: @CHARLIEBILELLO

4) High Concentration

Holy Moly indeed!

  • 56% of the total U.S. stock market cap (all-time allocation high).

  • No one wants defensive stocks (at an all-time allocation low).

  • Everyone wants technology stocks

Source: Topdowncharts.com

5) Proposed Stimulus Check

This just crossed my news feed - Apparently, President Trump is considering a $1,000 to $2,000 stimulus check for every taxpayer.

The funds would come from tariff collections.

EndGame Macro wrote, “Tarriffs are just to cover story, the real goal is to get cash flowing before the slowdown gets worse.”

Maybe - Regardless, this is concerning.

How about paying down some of the debt or using it to cover deficit spending?

Maddening if true. What in the world is going on?

Source: EndGame Macro

Diversification ideas - If you are interested in learning about the approach we follow at my firm, CORE and EXPLORE, we wrote a paper titled “How We Think About Wealth.”

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AI Humanoid Robots

A lot of my day job feels a lot like Shark Tank. We trade ideas with close relationships that include other family offices. Each month, we review a handful of select opportunities, but only a select few make it through the approval process.

My team and I have spent the last few weeks studying a venture capital investment in an AI humanoid robotics company. This is an area we are really excited about.

I believe robotics is one of the most significant market opportunities in our lifetimes. A $30 trillion-plus addressable market.

Think labor 23 hours, 7 days a week:

  • Stocking shelves, cleaning warehouses, building cars (assembly lines), picking fruit, folding laundry, doing dishes, walking dogs, and even elder care.

  • Special forces - Iron Man robots, etc.

The firm we are investing in is currently one of the leaders. Will they win? We hope so, but these are early days, and big names dominate the space.

These are early innings. There will be a progression in growth.

  • Warehouse and logistics

  • Restocking tasks like stocking a grocery store

  • Safety must be excellent - around toddlers, infants, pets, and other people.

  • Robots in your home, do laundry and take care of us as we age.

AI powers the intelligent robot. Creating an effective hand/finger seems to be a significant challenge, but the leading players are making notable progress.

Imagine this: if you can afford it, you’ll likely have a robot in your home within ten years ($30,000 range). Think “Rosie” from the old cartoon show, The Jetsons.

There are five major players in the U.S. and others in China, but none in Europe. We believe this is a U.S. vs. China race, although more than one company will likely win, much like there are numerous car manufacturers worldwide.

One of the interesting aspects is that once one robot learns a task, all robots learn it as well. One of the significant risks is that it will require a substantial amount of capital to scale and manufacture.

Keep your eye wide open - the robots are coming!

Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. 

 

Trade Signals: Update - October 2, 2025

Trade Signals is Organized in the Following Sections:

*Trade Signals basics: The Market Commentary section summarizes notable changes in the core key indicators: Investor sentiment, market breadth, stocks, treasury yields, the dollar, and gold. The Dashboard of Indicators provides a detailed view of all Trade Signals indicators.

Market Commentary

The key technical market indicators follow. You’ll see that the S&P 500 Index Weekly MACD remains bullish, the 10-year Treasury yield Weekly MACD continues to signal lower interest rates, the U.S. Dollar Weekly MACD is bullish, and Gold continues to shine.

Notables This Week:

Oil down, natural gas up.

Oil prices declined sharply during the week. Natural gas prices rose from $2.75 to $3.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).

As of October 2, 2025, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed at $60.73 per barrel (down 1.7% from the previous day and about 8-10% over the past week), and Brent crude declined from $70 to $64.66 per barrel (down roughly 7-8% weekly). The Daily Oil MACD is bearish, the Weekly MACD is turning bearish, and the Monthly MACD remains bearish.

Key Reasons for the Decline

Several factors are driving this week's drop:

  1. OPEC+ Production Increases: OPEC+ announced plans last week to raise output by an additional 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, following a similar increase in October. Market expectations see a higher supply.

  2. Weakening Global Demand, Especially from China: Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, fueled by new tariffs, have reduced economic growth prospects, particularly in China, the world's largest oil importer.

  3. Broader Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Pressures: The dominant economic narrative is one of economic slowdown. Essential for us to keep our eye on. There is certainly geopolitical pressure to drive the price of oil lower, and Saudi Arabia and OPEC appear to be on board with the plan to pressure Russia by increasing oil output, thereby driving the price of oil lower.

Key Macro Indicators - Investor Sentiment, Market Breadth, The S&P 500 Index (Stocks), The 10-year Treasury Yield (Bonds), and the Dollar:About Trade Signals

Trade Signals is a paid subscription service that posts the daily, weekly, and monthly trends in the markets (and more). Free for CMG clients. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. For discussion purposes only.

“Extreme patience combined with extreme decisiveness. You may call that our investment process.

Yes, it’s that simple.”

– Charlie Munger

TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change. Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. 

 

Personal Note: The Robots Are Coming

As a kid, I loved watching The Jetsons. The flying cars and moving sidewalks were fun, but it was Rosie the robot maid that captured my imagination. Flying cars did, too. But Rosie had personality - she cracked jokes, kept the household in order, and even offered advice. Back then, Rosie felt like pure science fiction. A family having a robot assistant? That was something for Saturday morning cartoons, not real life.

Today, what once felt impossible is now within reach. Prototypes of humanoid robots are walking, lifting, talking, and learning. They’re not yet ready to fold the laundry or make dinner, but the trajectory is clear. Ten years from now, it’s entirely possible that a “Rosie” could be in our homes, helping us with daily life. That’s why I am leaning into this space. The robots are coming. Keep it on your radar. 

By the time this note hits your inbox, today’s important matchup between the Malvern Prep Friars and the Haverford School should have concluded. It’s been a good week. The boys are now seven wins, two losses, and two ties.

Last Tuesday’s win was a strong one, ending 3-1. Today’s game will be the biggest test of the season. A cold IPA tastes so much better after a win, and the large smile on Susan’s face is priceless. I’ll be on the sidelines with her with a notebook in hand. Go Friars.

Here is a link to a short video - The Jetsons.

And the answer to the trivia question: The Jetsons dog’s name was Astro.

Congrats to the Yankees. Great win last night. October baseball - an exciting time of year. I’m a die-hard Phillies fan. Good luck to your favorite team.

Have a great week!

Warm regards,

Steve

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Stephen B. Blumenthal
Executive Chairman & CIO
CMG Capital Management Group, Inc.
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Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management. Author of Forbes Book: On My Radar, Navigating Stock Market Cycles.

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On My Radar - 666 to 6,666