On My Radar: When the Banker Leaves the Bank
Jensen Huang has resigned from Nvidia, and the "Bank of Nvidia" and its $530 billion in commitments and guarantees is suddenly front and center. Bethany McLean and Michael Burry on circular AI financing, Michael Howell on a turning liquidity cycle, plus record concentration and margin debt all point to the same message: AI is real, but price matters. Plus Trade Signals and a season-ending note on the Malvern Prep Friars.
On My Radar: Bankruptcy or Robots
Anthropic’s S-1 shows an AI business growing faster than the iPhone, with 85% gross margins and only 1% of its potential customers. But AI borrowing now equals 29% of new Treasury supply. Plus Bessent’s “I am the house,” Judy Shelton’s gold-linked bonds, and why the race is between productivity and bankruptcy.
On My Radar: Pressure Points
Black October, a record $6.4 billion crypto heist, junk-credit spreads near 8% with stocks just 2% off their highs, and margin debt at 4.6% of GDP. Plus the Fed's hawkish hold, record M2, gold below $4,000, Tuesday's midterms, and a fall round at Myopia Hunt Club.
On My Radar: Margin Debt In A Late Cycle Bull Market
Margin debt hit a record $1.5 trillion in June and now sits near 4.6% of GDP, the most leverage relative to the economy on record. Plus Ned Davis Research's late-cycle charts: one of the longest bull markets in history, a SpaceX-led IPO surge, record stock ownership, record tech concentration, and what the Fed, the midterms and seasonals mean into year-end.
On My Radar: The Canary in the Data Center
Two canaries stopped singing this week: producer prices jumped 1.3% in September and CoreWeave's bonds slid into distressed territory. Plus Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones on the AI bubble, updated valuation charts and the yen carry trade.
On My Radar: A Game of Reward vs. Risk
Howard Marks's fishbowl, Peter Bernstein on survival, and how we score reward vs. risk, from option collars to direct lending. Plus Peter Boockvar on CNBC and the yen carry trade.
On My Radar: No Clear Off-Ramp
"Things have not materially changed… The exception is the Houthis." A former oil CEO's latest read on Iran, plus jobs, rates and the yen carry trade.